Camerer, Colin (1992) The Rationality of Prices and Volume in Experimental Markets. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 51 (2). pp. 237-272. ISSN 0749-5978 http://resolver.caltech.edu/CaltechAUTHORS:20110211-111851618
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Market experiments designed to test whether individual errors are reduced by markets generally indicate that errors do make prices or trading volume irrational. For example, in markets for assets of uncertain value a "representativeness"- based theory predicts deviations of prices from Bayesian predictions. Endowment effects and optimism about relative trading ability lead to trading volumes which are too low or too high. Forecasts of future prices in markets violate rational expectations restrictions. And subjects do not ignore their own information when making forecasts of the forecasts of others. These data suggest that individual errors are often reduced, but not eliminated, in experimental markets under ideal learning conditions. They cast doubt on the optimistic presumption that prices negotiated in competitive market settings will reflect true values. The markets are unusually competitive, but the results suggest that errors are likely to be important in two-party negotiations and other settings too.
|Additional Information:||© 1992 Academic Press, Inc. Available online 27 July 2004. The financial support of the Wharton Risk and Decision Processes Center and the National Science Foundation (SES 87-08566, 88-09299) is gratefully acknowledged. The author thanks the editors of this volume, and three anonymous reviewers, for many helpful comments.|
|Official Citation:||Colin Camerer, The rationality of prices and volume in experimental markets, Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Volume 51, Issue 2, Decision Processes in Negotiation, March 1992, Pages 237-272, ISSN 0749-5978, DOI: 10.1016/0749-5978(92)90013-W. (http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/B6WP2-4CYG22J-3W/2/0e268f8f9991323ff9e06fa174581e29)|
|Usage Policy:||No commercial reproduction, distribution, display or performance rights in this work are provided.|
|Deposited By:||Tony Diaz|
|Deposited On:||20 Feb 2011 00:57|
|Last Modified:||20 Feb 2011 00:57|
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