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Illusory Correlations in Perceptions and Predictions of Organizational Traits

Camerer, Colin (1988) Illusory Correlations in Perceptions and Predictions of Organizational Traits. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 1 (2). pp. 77-94. ISSN 0894-3257. http://resolver.caltech.edu/CaltechAUTHORS:20110218-075309465

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Abstract

People often believe in 'illusory' correlations between variables that are similar, but not actually correlated. This study suggests that judgements of organizational traits reflect illusory correlations, because subject’ perceptions of correlations between traits, and the predictions of Hage’s (1965) ‘axiomatic’ theory, were more highly correlated with independent similarity ratings than with actual correlations between traits. Some methodological reasons why organizational-trait theories might unwittingly produce illusory correlation predictions are discussed, along with possible remedies.


Item Type:Article
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/bdm.3960010203DOIUNSPECIFIED
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/bdm.3960010203/abstractPublisherUNSPECIFIED
Additional Information:© 1988 Wiley-Blackwell. Received 23 July 1987; Revised 11 February 1988. Article first published online: 17 Aug. 2006. Financial support from the Paget Research Chair at Northwestern's Kellogg Graduate School of Management is gratefully acknowledged. Thanks to participants in the Wharton School Management Colloquium, several anonymous journal referees. Howard Aldrich, Jennifer Isaacs, Dan Levinthal, George Loewenstein, Harbir Singh, Ari Vepsalainen, and Martin Weber.
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Northwestern Kellogg Graduate School of Management UNSPECIFIED
Record Number:CaltechAUTHORS:20110218-075309465
Persistent URL:http://resolver.caltech.edu/CaltechAUTHORS:20110218-075309465
Official Citation:Camerer, C. (1988), Illusory correlations in perceptions and predictions of organizational traits. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 1: 77–94. doi: 10.1002/bdm.3960010203
Usage Policy:No commercial reproduction, distribution, display or performance rights in this work are provided.
ID Code:22365
Collection:CaltechAUTHORS
Deposited By: Tony Diaz
Deposited On:08 Mar 2011 23:24
Last Modified:08 Mar 2011 23:24

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