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The process-performance paradox in expert judgment - How can experts know so much and predict so badly?

Camerer, Colin F. and Johnson, Eric J. (1991) The process-performance paradox in expert judgment - How can experts know so much and predict so badly? In: Toward a General Theory of Expertise: Prospects and Limits. Cambridge University Press , Cambridge, pp. 195-217. ISBN 9780521404709 http://resolver.caltech.edu/CaltechAUTHORS:20110225-142320338

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Abstract

A mysterious fatal disease strikes a large minority of the population. The disease is incurable, but an expensive drug can keep victims alive. Congress decides that the drug should be given to those whose lives can be extended longest, which only a few specialists can predict. The experts work around the clock searching for a cure; allocating the drug is a new chore they would rather avoid.


Item Type:Book Section
Additional Information:© 1991 Cambridge University Press.
Record Number:CaltechAUTHORS:20110225-142320338
Persistent URL:http://resolver.caltech.edu/CaltechAUTHORS:20110225-142320338
Usage Policy:No commercial reproduction, distribution, display or performance rights in this work are provided.
ID Code:22525
Collection:CaltechAUTHORS
Deposited By: Tony Diaz
Deposited On:08 Mar 2011 22:37
Last Modified:29 Mar 2014 04:14

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