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Implications of the growth in demand for commercial and industrial electrical energy in the South Coast Air Basin

Lees, Lester (1971) Implications of the growth in demand for commercial and industrial electrical energy in the South Coast Air Basin. California Institute of Technology , Pasadena, CA. (Unpublished) http://resolver.caltech.edu/CaltechEQL:EQL-R-2

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Abstract

An examination of statistical data for the period 1960-1970 shows a simple correlation between the growth in demand for commercial electrical energy in the South Coast Air Basin and the growth in commercial floor area and in electrical loading per square foot. Demand for industrial electrical energy correlates strongly with value added by manufacture and with kilowatt-hours per dollar of value added; growth in manufacturing floor area is a secondary factor. These simple correlations are utilized to forecast future demand for electrical energy in the Basin in terms of plausible "minimum" and "maximum" rates of economic growth. Comparisons between these demand projections and conservative estimates of available electrical generating capacity bring out the "tightness" of the short-run demand-supply situation. A "management standard" for growth in demand for electrical energy of 5% per year is suggested as a goal for the mid-1970's. Long-range implications of environmental, land use and technological constraints on electrical energy supply are examined and related to possible limitations on the rate of economic expansion in the South Coast Air Basin. Conversely, one can utilize the results of this study to estimate the relationship between a desired rate of economic growth and the demand for electrical energy.


Item Type:Report or Paper (Technical Report)
Additional Information:Supported in part by the National Science Foundation, Research Applied to National Needs (RANN), under Grant No. GI-29726. The author would like to express his appreciation to Miss Patti Horne, research aide at the Environmental Quality Laboratory, for her assistance in collecting most of the statistical data utilized in this report, and to Mr. Paul Myers, Supervising Environmental Planning Engineer, Southern California Edison Company, for his kind cooperation in supplying unpublished data on various aspects of electrical energy demand.
Group:Environmental Quality Laboratory
Record Number:CaltechEQL:EQL-R-2
Persistent URL:http://resolver.caltech.edu/CaltechEQL:EQL-R-2
Usage Policy:You are granted permission for individual, educational, research and non-commercial reproduction, distribution, display and performance of this work in any format.
ID Code:25734
Collection:CaltechEQL
Deposited By: Imported from CaltechEQL
Deposited On:14 Sep 2007
Last Modified:26 Dec 2012 13:47

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