Zhan, Zhongwen and Jin, Bikai and Wei, Shengji and Graves, Robert W. (2011) Coulomb Stress Change Sensitivity due to Variability in Mainshock Source Models and Receiving Fault Parameters: A Case Study of the 2010–2011 Christchurch, New Zealand, Earthquakes. Seismological Research Letters, 82 (6). pp. 800-814. ISSN 0895-0695 http://resolver.caltech.edu/CaltechAUTHORS:20111213-144953606
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Strong aftershocks following major earthquakes present significant challenges for infrastructure recovery as well as for emergency rescue efforts. A tragic instance of this is the 22 February 2011 Mw 6.3 Christchurch aftershock in New Zealand, which caused more than 100 deaths while the 2010 Mw 7.1 Canterbury mainshock did not cause a single fatality (Figure 1). Therefore, substantial efforts have been directed toward understanding the generation mechanisms of aftershocks as well as mitigating hazards due to aftershocks. Among these efforts are the prediction of strong aftershocks, earthquake early warning, and aftershock probability assessment. Zhang et al. (1999) reported a successful case of strong aftershock prediction with precursory data such as changes in seismicity pattern, variation of b-value, and geomagnetic anomalies. However, official reports of such successful predictions in geophysical journals are extremely rare, implying that deterministic prediction of potentially damaging aftershocks is not necessarily more scientifically feasible than prediction of mainshocks.
|Additional Information:||© 2011 by the Seismological Society of America. Constructive reviews provided by Jeanne Hardebeck, Morgan Page, and an anonymous reviewer were very helpful in revising the paper and making it acceptable for publication. This work is supported by China Earthquake Administration fund 200808078, and NSFC fund 40821160549, 41074032.|
|Official Citation:||Zhongwen Zhan, Bikai Jin, Shengji Wei, and Robert W. Graves Coulomb Stress Change Sensitivity due to Variability in Mainshock Source Models and Receiving Fault Parameters: A Case Study of the 2010–201. Christchurch, New Zealand, Earthquakes Seismological Research Letters, November/December 2011, v. 82, p. 800-814, doi:10.1785/gssrl.82.6.800|
|Usage Policy:||No commercial reproduction, distribution, display or performance rights in this work are provided.|
|Deposited By:||Ruth Sustaita|
|Deposited On:||13 Dec 2011 23:28|
|Last Modified:||13 Dec 2011 23:28|
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