A Very Efficient Moment Calculation Method for Uncertain Linear Dynamic Systems

Abstract

The problem of calculating the uncertainty in the dynamic response of a structure due to uncertainties related to the modeling of its dynamic behavior, is addressed. Based on a Bayesian probabilistic approach, a new approximate numerical method is proposed to investigate the resulting uncertainties in the structural response. The proposed method provides a very efficient and accurate approach to the solution of stochastic finite-element models. It can be used to quantify the uncertainties in the predicted response of a structure during its design, where engineering judgement is used to quantify the uncertainties in the modeling process.