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Simplified PBEE to Estimate Economic Seismic Risk for Buildings

Porter, Keith A. and Beck, James L. (2004) Simplified PBEE to Estimate Economic Seismic Risk for Buildings. In: Proceedings of the International Workshop on Performance-Based Seismic Design. Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research Center , Berkeley, CA, pp. 137-148. ISBN 0-9762060-0-5

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A seismic risk assessment is often performed on behalf of a buyer of large commercial buildings in seismically active regions. One outcome of the assessment is that a probable maximum loss (PML) is computed. PML is of limited use to real-estate investors as it has no place in a standard financial analysis and reflects too long a planning period for what-if scenarios. We introduce an alternative to PML called probable frequent loss (PFL), defined as the mean loss resulting from an economic-basis earthquake such as shaking with 10% exceedance probability in 5 years. PFL is approximately related to expected annualized loss (EAL) through a site economic hazard coefficient (H) introduced here. PFL and EAL offer three advantages over PML: (1) meaningful planning period; (2) applicability in financial analysis (making seismic risk a potential market force); and (3) can be estimated by a rigorous but simplified PBEE method that relies on a single linear structural analysis. We illustrate using 15 example buildings, including a 7-story nonductile reinforced-concrete moment-frame building in Van Nuys, CA and 14 buildings from the CUREE-Caltech Woodframe Project.

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Record Number:CaltechAUTHORS:20120910-154417059
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ID Code:33980
Deposited By: Carmen Nemer-Sirois
Deposited On:12 Sep 2012 22:07
Last Modified:26 Dec 2012 16:08

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