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A Bayesian Probability Approach to Updating Structural Models and Their Uncertainties

Beck, James L. and Katafygiotis, Lambros S. (1998) A Bayesian Probability Approach to Updating Structural Models and Their Uncertainties. In: Proceedings Second World Conference on Structural Control. Wiley , Chichester, NY, pp. 2259-2268. ISBN 0471983101 http://resolver.caltech.edu/CaltechAUTHORS:20120926-093137848

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Abstract

The problem of updating a structural model and its associated uncertamt1es by utilizing structural response data is addressed using a Bayesian statistical framework which can handle the inherent ill-conditioning and possible nonuniqueness in model updating applications. The model updating is done by using Bayes theorem to update the probability model for the parameters of the structural model set and the parameters of the prediction-error probability model set. From this perspective, model updating is viewed as part of robust analysis where modeling uncertainties are explicitly addressed in the analysis of a system. The exact expressions for updated model predictions are given by multi-dimensional integrals whose direct evaluation is usually computationally prohibitive. Asymptotic approximations are presented for both identifiable and unidentifiable model sets. An illustrative example is given using robust and updated reliabilities to achieve a more effective optimal design of a tuned-mass damper for a simple bridge system.


Item Type:Book Section
Additional Information:Financial support by the National Science Foundation under subcontract to grant CMS- 9503370 and the Hong Kong Research Grant Council under grants HKUST 639/95E and 6041 /97E is gratefully acknowledged. The assistance of graduate students Hui Fai Lam, HKUST. and Siu Kui Au, Caltech. are also gratefully acknowledged.
Funders:
Funding AgencyGrant Number
NSFCMS-9503370
Hong Kong Research Grant CouncilHKUST 639/95E
Hong Kong Research Grant CouncilHKUST 6041/97E
Record Number:CaltechAUTHORS:20120926-093137848
Persistent URL:http://resolver.caltech.edu/CaltechAUTHORS:20120926-093137848
Usage Policy:No commercial reproduction, distribution, display or performance rights in this work are provided.
ID Code:34402
Collection:CaltechAUTHORS
Deposited By: Carmen Nemer-Sirois
Deposited On:06 Nov 2012 01:00
Last Modified:06 Nov 2012 01:00

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