Humans to Mars: A feasibility and cost–benefit analysis

Abstract

Mars is a compelling astrobiological target, and ahuman mission would provide an opportunity to collect immense amounts of scientific data. Exploration alone, however, cannot justify the increased risk. Instead, three factors drive ahuman mission: economics, education, and exploration. Ahuman mission has a unique potential to inspire the next generation of young people to enter critically needed science and engineering disciplines. A mission is economically feasible, and the research and development program put in place for ahuman mission would propel growth in related high-technology industries. The main hurdles are human physiological responses to 1–2 years of radiation and microgravity exposure. However, enabling technologies are sufficiently mature in these areas that they can be developed within a few decade timescale. Hence, the decision of whether or not to undertake ahuman mission to Mars is a political decision, and thus, educational and economic benefits are the crucial factors.