Porter, Keith A. and Beck, James L. and Shaikhutdinov, Rustem V. (2004) Simplified Estimation of Economic Seismic Risk for Buildings. In: 13th World Conference on Earthquake Engineering : conference proceedings, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada, August 1-6, 2004. , Paper No. 1755. http://resolver.caltech.edu/CaltechAUTHORS:20121026-154343702
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A seismic risk assessment is often performed on behalf of a buyer of a commercial building in a seismically active region. One outcome of the assessment is that a probable maximum loss (PML) is computed. PML is of limited use to real-estate investors as it has no place in a standard financial analysis and reflects too long a planning period. We introduce an alternative to PML called probable frequent loss (PFL), which is defined as the mean loss resulting from shaking with 10% exceedance probability in 5 years. PFL is approximately related to expected annualized loss (EAL) through an economic hazard coefficient that can be tabulated or mapped. PFL and EAL offer three advantages over PML: (1) their planning period is meaningful to investors; (2) they can be used in financial analysis (making seismic risk a potential market force); and (3) rather than relying on expert opinion, one can estimate PFL and EAL using rigorous performance-based earthquake engineering (PBEE) principles, and yet produce a good approximation using a single linear structural analysis. We illustrate using 15 buildings, including a 7- story nonductile reinforced-concrete moment-frame building in Van Nuys, California, and 14 buildings from the CUREE-Caltech Woodframe Project.
|Item Type:||Book Section|
|Additional Information:||This research was supported by the George W. Housner Senior Research Fellowship, the CUREE-Kajima Joint Research Program Phase IV and the CUREE-Caltech Woodframe Project. Thanks also to David L. McCormick, Steven K. Harris, and Ron Mayes (Simpson, Gumpertz & Heger, San Francisco), and to Greg Flynn (Flynn Holdings, San Francisco), and Jeff Berger (Arden Realty, Los Angeles), who provided advice on portions of the research. Their contributions are gratefully acknowledged.|
|Usage Policy:||No commercial reproduction, distribution, display or performance rights in this work are provided.|
|Deposited By:||Kristin Buxton|
|Deposited On:||26 Oct 2012 23:27|
|Last Modified:||26 Oct 2012 23:27|
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