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Combining Multiple Earthquake Models in Real Time for Earthquake Early Warning

Minson, Sarah E. and Wu, Stephen and Beck, James L. and Heaton, Thomas H. (2017) Combining Multiple Earthquake Models in Real Time for Earthquake Early Warning. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America . ISSN 0037-1106. (In Press) http://resolver.caltech.edu/CaltechAUTHORS:20170613-131115322

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Abstract

The ultimate goal of earthquake early warning (EEW) is to provide local shaking information to users before the strong shaking from an earthquake reaches their location. This is accomplished by operating one or more real‐time analyses that attempt to predict shaking intensity, often by estimating the earthquake’s location and magnitude and then predicting the ground motion from that point source. Other EEW algorithms use finite rupture models or may directly estimate ground motion without first solving for an earthquake source. EEW performance could be improved if the information from these diverse and independent prediction models could be combined into one unified, ground‐motion prediction. In this article, we set the forecast shaking at each location as the common ground to combine all these predictions and introduce a Bayesian approach to creating better ground‐motion predictions. We also describe how this methodology could be used to build a new generation of EEW systems that provide optimal decisions customized for each user based on the user’s individual false‐alarm tolerance and the time necessary for that user to react.


Item Type:Article
Related URLs:
URLURL TypeDescription
http://dx.doi.org/10.1785/0120160331DOIArticle
http://bssa.geoscienceworld.org/content/early/2017/06/08/0120160331PublisherArticle
http://www.seismosoc.org/Publications/BSSA_html/bssa_107-4/2016331-esupp/index.htmlPublisherSupplement
ORCID:
AuthorORCID
Heaton, Thomas H.0000-0003-3363-2197
Additional Information:© 2017 Seismological Society of America. Manuscript received 31 October 2016; First Published on June 13, 2017. The authors would like to thank Annemarie Baltay and T. C. Hanks who provided internal reviews, constructive criticisms, and useful discussions. Annemarie Baltay further provided background research on ground‐motion uncertainties. Thanks are also due to Elizabeth Cochran who provided ShakeAlert performance statistics. The authors would also like to acknowledge the journal editors and reviewers for helping revise and improve the article. Any use of trade, firm, or product names is for descriptive purposes only and does not imply endorsement by the U.S. Government.
Group:Seismological Laboratory
Record Number:CaltechAUTHORS:20170613-131115322
Persistent URL:http://resolver.caltech.edu/CaltechAUTHORS:20170613-131115322
Official Citation:Combining Multiple Earthquake Models in Real Time for Earthquake Early Warning Sarah E. Minson, Stephen Wu, James L. Beck, Thomas H. Heaton Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America Jun 2017, DOI: 10.1785/0120160331
Usage Policy:No commercial reproduction, distribution, display or performance rights in this work are provided.
ID Code:78167
Collection:CaltechAUTHORS
Deposited By: Tony Diaz
Deposited On:13 Jun 2017 20:20
Last Modified:13 Jun 2017 20:21

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