Centennial Changes in the Indonesian Throughflow Connected to the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation: The Ocean's Transient Conveyor Belt

Abstract

Climate models consistently project a robust weakening of the Indonesian Throughflow (ITF) and the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) in response to greenhouse gas forcing. Previous studies of ITF variability have largely focused on local processes in the Indo‐Pacific Basin. Here, we propose that much of the centennial‐scale ITF weakening is dynamically linked to changes in the Atlantic Basin and communicated between basins via wave processes. In response to an AMOC slowdown, the Indian Ocean develops a northward surface transport anomaly that converges mass and modifies sea surface height in the Indian Ocean, which weakens the ITF. We illustrate these dynamic interbasin connections using a 1.5‐layer reduced gravity model and then validate the responses in a comprehensive general circulation model. Our results highlight the importance of transient volume exchanges between the Atlantic and Indo‐Pacific basins in regulating the global ocean circulation in a changing climate.