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The Occurrence of Rocky Habitable-zone Planets around Solar-like Stars from Kepler Data

Bryson, Steve and Kunimoto, Michelle and Kopparapu, Ravi K. and Coughlin, Jeffrey L. and Borucki, William J. and Koch, David and Silva Aguirre, Victor and Allen, Christopher and Barentsen, Geert and Batalha, Natalie M. and Berger, Travis and Boss, Alan and Buchhave, Lars A. and Burke, Christopher J. and Caldwell, Douglas A. and Campbell, Jennifer R. and Catanzarite, Joseph and Chandrasekharan, Hema and Chaplin, William J. and Christiansen, Jessie L. and Christensen-Dalsgaard, Jorgen and Ciardi, David R. and Clarke, Bruce D. and Cochran, William D. and Dotson, Jessie L. and Doyle, Laurance R. and Seperuelo Duarte, Eduardo and Dunham, Edward W. and Dupree, Andrea K. and Endl, Michael and Fanson, James L. and Ford, Eric B. and Fujieh, Maura and Gautier, Thomas N., III and Geary, John C. and Gilliland, Ronald L. and Girouard, Forrest R. and Gould, Alan and Haas, Michael R. and Henze, Christopher E. and Holman, Matthew J. and Howard, Andrew W. and Howell, Steve B. and Huber, Daniel and Hunter, Roger C. and Jenkins, Jon M. and Kjeldsen, Hans and Kolodziejczak, Jeffery and Larson, Kipp and Latham, David W. and Li, Jie and Meibom, Soren and Middour, Chris and Morris, Robert L. and Morton, Timothy D. and Mullally, Fergal and Mullally, Susan E. and Pletcher, David and Prša, Andrej and Quinn, Samuel N. and Quintana, Elisa V. and Ragozzine, Darin and Ramirez, Solange V. and Sanderfer, Dwight T. and Sasselov, Dimitar and Seader, Shawn E. and Shabram, Megan and Shporer, Avi and Smith, Jeffrey C. and Steffen, Jason H. and Still, Martin and Torres, Guillermo and Troeltzsch, John and Twicken, Joseph D. and Uddin, Akm Kamal and Van Cleve, Jeffrey E. and Voss, Janice and Weiss, Lauren and Welsh, William F. and Wohler, Bill and Zamudio, Khadeejah A. (2021) The Occurrence of Rocky Habitable-zone Planets around Solar-like Stars from Kepler Data. Astronomical Journal, 161 (1). Art. No. 36. ISSN 1538-3881. https://resolver.caltech.edu/CaltechAUTHORS:20201102-101455863

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Abstract

We present the occurrence rates for rocky planets in the habitable zones (HZs) of main-sequence dwarf stars based on the Kepler DR25 planet candidate catalog and Gaia-based stellar properties. We provide the first analysis in terms of star-dependent instellation flux, which allows us to track HZ planets. We define η⊕ as the HZ occurrence of planets with radii between 0.5 and 1.5 R⊕ orbiting stars with effective temperatures between 4800 and 6300 K. We find that η⊕ for the conservative HZ is between 0.37^(+0.48)_(−0.21) (errors reflect 68% credible intervals) and 0.60^(+0.90)_(−0.36) planets per star, while the optimistic HZ occurrence is between 0.58^(+0.73)_(−0.33) and 0.88^(+1.28)_(−0.51) planets per star. These bounds reflect two extreme assumptions about the extrapolation of completeness beyond orbital periods where DR25 completeness data are available. The large uncertainties are due to the small number of detected small HZ planets. We find similar occurrence rates between using Poisson likelihood Bayesian analysis and using Approximate Bayesian Computation. Our results are corrected for catalog completeness and reliability. Both completeness and the planet occurrence rate are dependent on stellar effective temperature. We also present occurrence rates for various stellar populations and planet size ranges. We estimate with 95% confidence that, on average, the nearest HZ planet around G and K dwarfs is ~6 pc away and there are ~4 HZ rocky planets around G and K dwarfs within 10 pc of the Sun.


Item Type:Article
Related URLs:
URLURL TypeDescription
https://doi.org/10.3847/1538-3881/abc418DOIArticle
https://arxiv.org/abs/2010.14812arXivDiscussion Paper
ORCID:
AuthorORCID
Bryson, Steve0000-0003-0081-1797
Kunimoto, Michelle0000-0001-9269-8060
Kopparapu, Ravi K.0000-0002-5893-2471
Coughlin, Jeffrey L.0000-0003-1634-9672
Silva Aguirre, Victor0000-0002-6137-903X
Barentsen, Geert0000-0002-3306-3484
Batalha, Natalie M.0000-0002-7030-9519
Berger, Travis0000-0002-2580-3614
Boss, Alan0000-0001-6974-9990
Buchhave, Lars A.0000-0003-1605-5666
Burke, Christopher J.0000-0002-7754-9486
Caldwell, Douglas A.0000-0003-1963-9616
Catanzarite, Joseph0000-0001-7980-4658
Chaplin, William J.0000-0002-9760-7735
Christiansen, Jessie L.0000-0002-8035-4778
Christensen-Dalsgaard, Jorgen0000-0001-5137-0966
Ciardi, David R.0000-0002-5741-3047
Cochran, William D.0000-0001-9662-3496
Dotson, Jessie L.0000-0003-4206-5649
Seperuelo Duarte, Eduardo0000-0003-4587-3764
Dupree, Andrea K.0000-0002-8985-8489
Endl, Michael0000-0002-7714-6310
Ford, Eric B.0000-0001-6545-639X
Gautier, Thomas N., III0000-0002-9794-5056
Geary, John C.0000-0003-3630-3735
Gilliland, Ronald L.0000-0002-1554-5578
Haas, Michael R.0000-0003-2397-0045
Holman, Matthew J.0000-0002-1139-4880
Howard, Andrew W.0000-0001-8638-0320
Howell, Steve B.0000-0002-2532-2853
Huber, Daniel0000-0001-8832-4488
Jenkins, Jon M.0000-0002-4715-9460
Kjeldsen, Hans0000-0002-9037-0018
Latham, David W.0000-0001-9911-7388
Li, Jie0000-0002-3733-4587
Morris, Robert L.000-0001-9303-3204
Morton, Timothy D.0000-0002-8537-5711
Mullally, Susan E.0000-0001-7106-4683
Pletcher, David0000-0001-7691-2194
Prša, Andrej0000-0002-1913-0281
Quinn, Samuel N.0000-0002-8964-8377
Quintana, Elisa V.0000-0003-1309-2904
Ragozzine, Darin000-0003-1080-9770
Sasselov, Dimitar0000-0001-7014-1771
Seader, Shawn E.0000-0002-6905-7676
Shabram, Megan0000-0003-1179-3125
Shporer, Avi0000-0002-1836-3120
Smith, Jeffrey C.0000-0002-6148-7903
Steffen, Jason H.0000-0002-6905-7676
Torres, Guillermo0000-0002-5286-0251
Twicken, Joseph D.0000-0002-6778-7552
Van Cleve, Jeffrey E.0000-0002-4534-3969
Weiss, Lauren0000-0002-3725-3058
Welsh, William F.0000-0003-2381-5301
Wohler, Bill0000-0002-5402-9613
Additional Information:© 2020 The Author(s). Published by the American Astronomical Society. Original content from this work may be used under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 licence. Any further distribution of this work must maintain attribution to the author(s) and the title of the work, journal citation and DOI. Received 2020 September 1; revised 2020 October 19; accepted 2020 October 20; published 2020 December 22. This research has made use of the NASA Exoplanet Archive, which is operated by the California Institute of Technology, under contract with the National Aeronautics and Space Administration under the Exoplanet Exploration Program. We thank our anonymous reviewer for many helpful comments that improved the manuscript. We thank NASA, Kepler management, and the Exoplanet Exploration Office for their continued support of and encouragement for the analysis of Kepler data. R.K.K. acknowledges support from the GSFC Sellers Exoplanet Environments Collaboration, which is supported by the NASA Planetary Science Division's Research Program, and from NASA's NExSS Virtual Planetary Laboratory funded by the NASA Astrobiology Program under grant 80NSSC18K0829. Funding for the Stellar Astrophysics Centre is provided by the Danish National Research Foundation (grant DNRF106). V.S.A. acknowledges support from the Independent Research Fund Denmark (research grant 7027-00096B) and the Carlsberg Foundation (grant agreement CF19-0649). E.B.F. was supported by a grant from the Simons Foundation/SFARI (675601). E.B.F. acknowledges support from the NASA Kepler Participating Scientist Program, through grants #NNX08AR04G, #NNX12AF73G, and #NNX14AN76G. E.B.F. acknowledges support from Penn State's Eberly College of Science, Department of Astronomy & Astrophysics, Institute for Computational & Data Sciences, Center for Exoplanets and Habitable Worlds, and Center for Astrostatistics. E.S.D. acknowledges financial support from the National Council for Scientific and Technological Development (CNPQ) and the IFRJ. D.H. acknowledges support from the Alfred P. Sloan Foundation, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (80NSSC19K0597), and the National Science Foundation (AST-1717000). S. Mathur acknowledges support from the Spanish Ministry with the Ramon y Cajal fellowship number RYC-2015-17697. L.M.W. is supported by the Beatrice Watson Parrent Fellowship and NASA ADAP Grant #80NSSC19K0597. Facility: Kepler. - Software: Python, Jupyter.
Group:Infrared Processing and Analysis Center (IPAC)
Funders:
Funding AgencyGrant Number
NASA80NSSC18K0829
Danish National Research FoundationDNRF106
Danish Council for Independent Research7027-00096B
Carlsberg FoundationCF19-0649
Simons Foundation675601
NASANNX08AR04G
NASANNX12AF73G
NASANNX14AN76G
Eberly College of ScienceUNSPECIFIED
Center for Exoplanets and Habitable WorldsUNSPECIFIED
Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)UNSPECIFIED
Instituto Federal do Rio de JaneiroUNSPECIFIED
Alfred P. Sloan FoundationUNSPECIFIED
NASA80NSSC19K0597
NSFAST-1717000
Ramón y Cajal ProgrammeRYC-2015-17697
NASA80NSSC19K0597
Subject Keywords:Exoplanets
Issue or Number:1
Classification Code:Unified Astronomy Thesaurus concepts: Exoplanets (498)
Record Number:CaltechAUTHORS:20201102-101455863
Persistent URL:https://resolver.caltech.edu/CaltechAUTHORS:20201102-101455863
Official Citation:Steve Bryson et al 2021 AJ 161 36
Usage Policy:No commercial reproduction, distribution, display or performance rights in this work are provided.
ID Code:106381
Collection:CaltechAUTHORS
Deposited By: Tony Diaz
Deposited On:04 Nov 2020 17:36
Last Modified:22 Dec 2020 20:49

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