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Decentralized Provision of Renewable Predictions Within a Virtual Power Plant

Chen, Yue and Li, Tongxin and Zhao, Changhong and Wei, Wei (2021) Decentralized Provision of Renewable Predictions Within a Virtual Power Plant. IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, 36 (3). pp. 2652-2662. ISSN 0885-8950. doi:10.1109/TPWRS.2020.3035174. https://resolver.caltech.edu/CaltechAUTHORS:20201105-145616008

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Abstract

The mushrooming of distributed energy resources turns end-users from passive price-takers to active market-participants. To manage massive proactive end-users efficiently, virtual power plant (VPP) as an innovative concept emerges. It can provide some necessary information to help consumers improve their profits and trade with the electricity market on behalf of them. One important information desired by consumers is the prediction of renewable outputs inside this VPP. Presently, most VPPs run in a centralized manner, which means the VPP predicts the outputs of all the renewable sources it manages and provides the predictions to every consumer who buys this information. We prove that providing predictions can boost social total surplus. However, with more consumers and renewables in the market, this centralized scheme needs extensive data communication and may jeopardize the privacy of individual stakeholders. In this paper, we propose a decentralized prediction provision algorithm in which consumers from each subregion only buy local predictions and exchange information with the VPP. Convergence is proved under a mild condition, and the demand gap between centralized and decentralized schemes is proved to have zero expectation and bounded variance. Illustrative examples show that the variance of this gap decreases with more consumers and higher uncertainty.


Item Type:Article
Related URLs:
URLURL TypeDescription
https://doi.org/10.1109/tpwrs.2020.3035174DOIArticle
ORCID:
AuthorORCID
Chen, Yue0000-0002-7594-7587
Li, Tongxin0000-0002-9806-8964
Zhao, Changhong0000-0003-0539-8591
Wei, Wei0000-0002-1018-7708
Additional Information:© 2020 IEEE. Manuscript received June 15, 2020; revised September 15, 2020; accepted October 25, 2020. Date of publication November 2, 2020; date of current version April 19, 2021. This work was supported by Shanxi Province Key Research, and Development Project 201903D421029. Paper no. TPWRS-00993-2020.
Funders:
Funding AgencyGrant Number
Shanxi Province Key Research and Development Project201903D421029
Subject Keywords:Decentrailized prediction, local information, virtual power plant, prediction precision, renewable uncertainty
Issue or Number:3
DOI:10.1109/TPWRS.2020.3035174
Record Number:CaltechAUTHORS:20201105-145616008
Persistent URL:https://resolver.caltech.edu/CaltechAUTHORS:20201105-145616008
Official Citation:Y. Chen, T. Li, C. Zhao and W. Wei, "Decentralized Provision of Renewable Predictions Within a Virtual Power Plant," in IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, vol. 36, no. 3, pp. 2652-2662, May 2021, doi: 10.1109/TPWRS.2020.3035174
Usage Policy:No commercial reproduction, distribution, display or performance rights in this work are provided.
ID Code:106455
Collection:CaltechAUTHORS
Deposited By: George Porter
Deposited On:06 Nov 2020 15:53
Last Modified:22 Apr 2021 17:51

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