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Similarities and Differences in the Rupture Processes of the 1952 and 2003 Tokachi‐Oki Earthquakes

Kobayashi, Hiroaki and Koketsu, Kazuki and Miyake, Hiroe and Kanamori, Hiroo (2021) Similarities and Differences in the Rupture Processes of the 1952 and 2003 Tokachi‐Oki Earthquakes. Journal of Geophysical Research. Solid Earth, 126 (1). Art. No. e2020JB020585. ISSN 2169-9313.

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We investigated the similarities and differences between the rupture processes of the 1952 and 2003 Tokachi‐oki earthquakes (M_w ∼ 8) that occurred 51 years apart in the southernmost region of the Kuril subduction zone. This event pair is rare because seismic waveforms of both events were instrumentally recorded. We performed joint source inversion analyses of both earthquakes to better understand the rupture processes of this earthquake sequence. The dataset for the 1952 earthquake consists of teleseismic and strong motion data which were obtained by digitizing copies of analog seismograms. Two datasets were made for the 2003 earthquake to examine the effect of data limitation and to facilitate a comparison of the inversion results of the two earthquakes. One dataset consists of a large amount of teleseismic, strong motion, and geodetic data. The other dataset is similar to that of the 1952 earthquake. Our results show that the rupture propagation, slip areas, and maximum slip amounts were similar for the 1952 and 2003 earthquakes in the Tokachi‐oki region. However, there are two important differences: the 1952 earthquake was initiated by an M_w 6.1 subevent in the Tokachi‐oki region, and its rupture extended to the adjacent Akkeshi‐oki region. The similarity in the rupture pattern of the M8‐class earthquake pair suggests the persistence of asperities on the plate interface, while the differences imply a degree of variability in the initiation and termination of the cascading rupture process.

Item Type:Article
Related URLs:
URLURL TypeDescription ItemSISMOS project ItemJapan Meteorological Business Support Center ItemIRIS‐DMC ItemJapan Oceanographic Data Center
Kobayashi, Hiroaki0000-0002-9249-4217
Koketsu, Kazuki0000-0002-3255-3318
Miyake, Hiroe0000-0002-8354-6281
Kanamori, Hiroo0000-0001-8219-9428
Additional Information:© 2020. American Geophysical Union. Issue Online: 20 January 2021; Version of Record online: 20 January 2021; Accepted manuscript online: 18 December 2020; Manuscript accepted: 15 December 2020; Manuscript revised: 11 December 2020; Manuscript received: 13 July 2020. The authors would like to thank Toshitaka Baba, Phil Cummins, Shuichiro Fukumitsu, Willie Lee, Satoko Murotani, Kazuko Noguchi, Toshihiro Shimoyama, Steve Walter, and Yoshiko Yamanaka for their help in collecting and processing the copies of analog seismograms. The authors thank Thorne Lay for reading our manuscript and providing helpful comments and Luis Rivera for helping us identify some of the old observatories listed in the Gutenberg Notepad. The authors also thank two anonymous reviewers for their helpful reviews. Data Availability Statement: Some station bulletins were obtained from the SISMOS project ( The waveforms of the JMA stations are provided by the Japan Meteorological Business Support Center ( The teleseismic data were provided by the Wilber three system of IRIS‐DMC ( The plate models by Iwasaki et al. (2015) were constructed from topography and bathymetry data by GSI (250‐m digital map), Japan Oceanographic Data Center (500 m mesh bathymetry data, J‐EGG500, and Geographic Information Network of Alaska, University of Alaska (Lindquist et al., 2004). The copies of the Gutenberg notepad used in this study are provided by the Archives of the California Institute of Technology. The digitized data used in this paper can be downloaded from the Zenodo data repository ( Figures were drawn using the General Mapping Tools (Wessel & Smith, 1998).
Group:Seismological Laboratory
Subject Keywords:asperity; cascading rupture; historical seismogram; joint source inversion
Issue or Number:1
Record Number:CaltechAUTHORS:20210311-083919102
Persistent URL:
Official Citation:Kobayashi, H., Koketsu, K., Miyake, H., & Kanamori, H. (2021). Similarities and differences in the rupture processes of the 1952 and 2003 Tokachi‐oki earthquakes. Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth, 126, e2020JB020585.
Usage Policy:No commercial reproduction, distribution, display or performance rights in this work are provided.
ID Code:108390
Deposited By: Tony Diaz
Deposited On:11 Mar 2021 16:53
Last Modified:01 Jul 2021 08:05

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