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KMT-2019-BLG-0371 and the Limits of Bayesian Analysis

Kim, Yun Hak and Chung, Sun-Ju and Yee, Jennifer C. and Udalski, A. and Bond, Ian A. and Jung, Youn Kil and Gould, Andrew and Albrow, Michael D. and Han, Cheongho and Hwang, Kyu-Ha and Ryu, Yoon-Hyun and Shin, In-Gu and Shvartzvald, Yossi and Zang, Weicheng and Cha, Sang-Mok and Kim, Dong-Jin and Kim, Hyoun-Woo and Kim, Seung-Lee and Lee, Chung-Uk and Lee, Dong-Joo and Lee, Yongseok and Park, Byeong-Gon and Pogge, Richard W. and Poleski, Radek and Mróz, Przemek and Skowron, Jan and Szymański, Michal K. and Soszyński, Igor and Pietrukowicz, Pawel and Kozłowski, Szymon and Ulaczyk, Krzysztof and Rybicki, Krzysztof A. and Iwanek, Patryk and Wrona, Marcin and Gromadzki, Mariusz and Abe, Fumio and Barry, Richard and Bennett, David P. and Bhattacharya, Aparna and Donachie, Martin and Fujii, Hirosane and Fukui, Akihiko and Itow, Yoshitaka and Hirao, Yuki and Kirikawa, Rintaro and Kondo, Iona and Koshimoto, Naoki and Matsubara, Yutaka and Muraki, Yasushi and Miyazaki, Shota and Ranc, Clément and Rattenbury, Nicholas J. and Satoh, Yuki and Shoji, Hikaru and Sumi, Takahiro and Suzuki, Daisuke and Tristram, Paul J. and Tanaka, Yuzuru and Yamawaki, Tsubasa and Yonehara, Atsunori (2021) KMT-2019-BLG-0371 and the Limits of Bayesian Analysis. Astronomical Journal, 162 (1). Art. No. 17. ISSN 0004-6256. doi:10.3847/1538-3881/abf930.

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We show that the perturbation at the peak of the light curve of microlensing event KMT-2019-BLG-0371 is explained by a model with a mass ratio between the host star and planet of q ~ 0.08. Due to the short event duration (t_E ~ 6.5 days), the secondary object in this system could potentially be a massive giant planet. A Bayesian analysis shows that the system most likely consists of a host star with a mass M_h = 0.09_(-0.05)^(+0.14) M_⊙ and a massive giant planet with a mass M_p = 7.70_(-3.90)^(+11.34) M_(Jup). However, the interpretation of the secondary as a planet (i.e., as having M_p < 13 M_(Jup)) rests entirely on the Bayesian analysis. Motivated by this event, we conduct an investigation to determine which constraints meaningfully affect Bayesian analyses for microlensing events. We find that the masses inferred from such a Bayesian analysis are determined almost entirely by the measured value of θ_E and are relatively insensitive to other factors such as the direction of the event (ℓ, b), the lens–source relative proper motion μ_(rel), or the specific Galactic model prior.

Item Type:Article
Related URLs:
URLURL TypeDescription Paper
Kim, Yun Hak0000-0002-0646-9198
Chung, Sun-Ju0000-0001-6285-4528
Yee, Jennifer C.0000-0001-9481-7123
Udalski, A.0000-0001-5207-5619
Jung, Youn Kil0000-0002-0314-6000
Albrow, Michael D.0000-0003-3316-4012
Han, Cheongho0000-0002-2641-9964
Hwang, Kyu-Ha0000-0002-9241-4117
Ryu, Yoon-Hyun0000-0001-9823-2907
Shin, In-Gu0000-0002-4355-9838
Shvartzvald, Yossi0000-0003-1525-5041
Zang, Weicheng0000-0001-6000-3463
Cha, Sang-Mok0000-0002-7511-2950
Kim, Dong-Jin0000-0002-7038-2118
Kim, Hyoun-Woo0000-0001-8263-1006
Kim, Seung-Lee0000-0003-0562-5643
Lee, Chung-Uk0000-0003-0043-3925
Lee, Yongseok0000-0001-7594-8072
Park, Byeong-Gon0000-0002-6982-7722
Pogge, Richard W.0000-0003-1435-3053
Poleski, Radek0000-0002-9245-6368
Mróz, Przemek0000-0001-7016-1692
Skowron, Jan0000-0002-2335-1730
Szymański, Michal K.0000-0002-0548-8995
Soszyński, Igor0000-0002-7777-0842
Pietrukowicz, Pawel0000-0002-2339-5899
Kozłowski, Szymon0000-0003-4084-880X
Ulaczyk, Krzysztof0000-0001-6364-408X
Rybicki, Krzysztof A.0000-0002-9326-9329
Iwanek, Patryk0000-0002-6212-7221
Wrona, Marcin0000-0002-3051-274X
Gromadzki, Mariusz0000-0002-1650-1518
Barry, Richard0000-0003-4916-0892
Bennett, David P.0000-0001-8043-8413
Fukui, Akihiko0000-0002-4909-5763
Itow, Yoshitaka0000-0002-8198-1968
Kondo, Iona0000-0002-3401-1029
Koshimoto, Naoki0000-0003-2302-9562
Muraki, Yasushi0000-0003-1978-2092
Miyazaki, Shota0000-0001-9818-1513
Ranc, Clément0000-0003-2388-4534
Rattenbury, Nicholas J.0000-0001-5069-319X
Sumi, Takahiro0000-0002-4035-5012
Suzuki, Daisuke0000-0002-5843-9433
Yonehara, Atsunori0000-0003-3480-0973
Additional Information:© 2021. The American Astronomical Society. Received 2021 January 12; revised 2021 April 7; accepted 2021 April 15; published 2021 June 15. Work by Y.H.K. was supported by the KASI (Korea Astronomy and Space Science Institute) grant 2021-1-830-08. This research has made use of the KMTNet system operated by the Korea Astronomy and Space Science Institute (KASI) and the data were obtained at three host sites of CTIO in Chile, SAAO in South Africa, and SSO in Australia. The OGLE project has received funding from the National Science Centre, Poland, grant MAESTRO 2014/14/A/ST9/00121 to A.U. The MOA project was supported by JSPS KAKENHI grant Nos. JSPS24253004, JSPS26247023, JSPS23340064, JSPS15H00781, JP17H02871, and JP16H06287. Work by C.H. was supported by the grants of the National Research Foundation of Korea (2019R1A2C2085965 and 2020R1A4A2002885).
Funding AgencyGrant Number
Korea Astronomy and Space Science Institute (KASI)2021-1-830-08
National Science Centre (Poland)2014/14/A/ST9/00121
Japan Society for the Promotion of Science (JSPS)JSPS24253004
Japan Society for the Promotion of Science (JSPS)JSPS26247023
Japan Society for the Promotion of Science (JSPS)JSPS23340064
Japan Society for the Promotion of Science (JSPS)JSPS15H00781
Japan Society for the Promotion of Science (JSPS)JP17H02871
Japan Society for the Promotion of Science (JSPS)JP16H06287
National Research Foundation of Korea2019R1A2C2085965
National Research Foundation of Korea2020R1A4A2002885
Subject Keywords:Binary lens microlensing
Issue or Number:1
Classification Code:Unified Astronomy Thesaurus concepts: Binary lens microlensing (2136)
Record Number:CaltechAUTHORS:20210626-183434308
Persistent URL:
Official Citation:Yun Hak Kim et al 2021 AJ 162 17
Usage Policy:No commercial reproduction, distribution, display or performance rights in this work are provided.
ID Code:109590
Deposited By: George Porter
Deposited On:28 Jun 2021 14:41
Last Modified:16 Nov 2021 19:36

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