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Shallow slow earthquakes to decipher future catastrophic earthquakes in the Guerrero seismic gap

Plata-Martinez, R. and Ide, S. and Shinohara, M. and Garcia, E. S. and Mizuno, N. and Dominguez, L. A. and Taira, T. and Yamashita, Y. and Toh, A. and Yamada, T. and Real, J. and Husker, A. and Cruz-Atienza, V. M. and Ito, Y. (2021) Shallow slow earthquakes to decipher future catastrophic earthquakes in the Guerrero seismic gap. Nature Communications, 12 . Art. No. 3976. ISSN 2041-1723. https://resolver.caltech.edu/CaltechAUTHORS:20210628-180924546

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Abstract

The Guerrero seismic gap is presumed to be a major source of seismic and tsunami hazard along the Mexican subduction zone. Until recently, there were limited observations at the shallow portion of the plate interface offshore Guerrero, so we deployed instruments there to better characterize the extent of the seismogenic zone. Here we report the discovery of episodic shallow tremors and potential slow slip events in Guerrero offshore. Their distribution, together with that of repeating earthquakes, seismicity, residual gravity and bathymetry, suggest that a portion of the shallow plate interface in the gap undergoes stable slip. This mechanical condition may not only explain the long return period of large earthquakes inside the gap, but also reveals why the rupture from past M < 8 earthquakes on adjacent megathrust segments did not propagate into the gap to result in much larger events. However, dynamic rupture effects could drive one of these nearby earthquakes to break through the entire Guerrero seismic gap.


Item Type:Article
Related URLs:
URLURL TypeDescription
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-24210-9DOIArticle
http://www.ssn.unam.mx/Related ItemInland broadband data
ORCID:
AuthorORCID
Plata-Martinez, R.0000-0001-9272-0926
Ide, S.0000-0003-0063-548X
Shinohara, M.0000-0003-1327-509X
Dominguez, L. A.0000-0001-7272-871X
Taira, T.0000-0002-6170-797X
Toh, A.0000-0002-7800-9713
Husker, A.0000-0003-1139-0502
Cruz-Atienza, V. M.0000-0001-7067-2636
Additional Information:© The Author(s) 2021. This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/. Received 30 October 2020. Accepted 28 May 2021. Published 28 June 2021. Offshore instrumentation of the NW-GG comes from a collaboration between Japanese and Mexican universities and agencies. This project was funded by Science and Technology Research Partnership for Sustainable Development (SATREPS) and the Japan Science and Technology Agency (JST) with grant number JPMJSA1510, the National Autonomous University of Mexico (UNAM) with PAPIIT grants IN113814, IN120220 and IG100617, the Mexican Council of Science and Technology (CONACyT) with grant PN6471, AMEXCID-SRE and the Ministry of Civil Protection of the State of Guerrero, Mexico. Special thanks to UNAM Coordinación de la Investigación Científica for “El Puma” research vessel time and all the crew. We thank Arturo Ronquillo Arvizu for his technical support and P. Romanet, T. Nishikawa, S. Ohyanagi, T. Chang and C. Villafuerte for valuable discussion. Data availability. Data set of tremors, earthquakes and repeaters are available in Supplementary Information. Codes are available upon request to the correspondence author R. P.-M. (plata.omar.48e.@st.kyoto-u.ac.jp). Ocean bottom seismometers data from SATREPS-UNAM project are subjected to restrictions policies until March 2025. Inland broadband data is available from SSN at: www.ssn.unam.mx. Author Contributions. R.P.-M. detected tremors and wrote the manuscript, M.S. detected earthquakes, E.G. calculated residual bathymetry, L.A.D. and T.T. detected repeaters and V.M.C.-A. and Y.I. are the PIs of the Mexico-Japan cooperation project. S.I., N.M., Y.Y., A.T., T.Y., J.R. and A.H. contributed with geophysical interpretation and improved the manuscript. The authors declare no competing interests. Peer review information. Nature Communications thanks Hector Gonzalez-Huizar and the other, anonymous, reviewers for their contribution to the peer review of this work.
Group:Seismological Laboratory
Funders:
Funding AgencyGrant Number
Science and Technology Research Partnership for Sustainable Development (SATREPS)UNSPECIFIED
Japan Science and Technology AgencyJPMJSA1510
Programa de Apoyo a Proyectos de Investigación e Innovación Tecnológica (PAPIIT)IN113814
Programa de Apoyo a Proyectos de Investigación e Innovación Tecnológica (PAPIIT)IN120220
Programa de Apoyo a Proyectos de Investigación e Innovación Tecnológica (PAPIIT)IG100617
Consejo Nacional de Ciencia y Tecnología (CONACYT)PN6471
Agencia Mexicana de Cooperación Internacional para el Desarrollo (​AMEXCID)UNSPECIFIED
Secretaría de Relaciones Exteriores (SRE)UNSPECIFIED
Guerrero Ministry of Civil ProtectionUNSPECIFIED
Record Number:CaltechAUTHORS:20210628-180924546
Persistent URL:https://resolver.caltech.edu/CaltechAUTHORS:20210628-180924546
Official Citation:Plata-Martinez, R., Ide, S., Shinohara, M. et al. Shallow slow earthquakes to decipher future catastrophic earthquakes in the Guerrero seismic gap. Nat Commun 12, 3976 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-24210-9
Usage Policy:No commercial reproduction, distribution, display or performance rights in this work are provided.
ID Code:109622
Collection:CaltechAUTHORS
Deposited By: George Porter
Deposited On:28 Jun 2021 21:56
Last Modified:28 Jun 2021 21:56

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