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Does Hopelessness Accurately Predict How Bad You Will Feel in the Future? Initial Evidence of Affective Forecasting Errors in Individuals with Elevated Suicide Risk

Bauer, Brian W. and Hom, Melanie A. and Karnick, Aleksandr T. and Charpentier, Caroline J. and Keefer, Lucas A. and Capron, Daniel W. and Rudd, M. David and Bryan, Craig J. (2022) Does Hopelessness Accurately Predict How Bad You Will Feel in the Future? Initial Evidence of Affective Forecasting Errors in Individuals with Elevated Suicide Risk. Cognitive Therapy and Research, 46 (4). pp. 686-703. ISSN 0147-5916. doi:10.1007/s10608-021-10285-7.

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Background. Forecasts about the future can dictate actions and behaviors performed in the present moment. Given that periods of elevated acute suicide risk often consist of elevated negative affect and hopelessness, individuals during these periods may more bias-prone and make decisions (e.g., suicide attempts) based on inaccurate affective forecasts about their futures (e.g., overestimating future pain/psychiatric symptom severity). The aim of this study was to examine the accuracy of hopelessness in predicting future feelings—an important step for understanding possible decision-making biases that may occur near elevated periods of acute suicide risk. Methods. Secondary longitudinal data analyses were performed on two randomized clinical trial samples of active-duty military personnel (Ns = 97 and 172) with past-week suicide ideation and/or a lifetime suicide attempt history. Results. Results were consistent with the affective forecasting literature; in both samples, individuals overestimated future pain. Conclusions. Results from two studies offer preliminary evidence for the existence of affective forecasting errors near the time of a suicide attempt/during periods of elevated suicide risk.

Item Type:Article
Related URLs:
URLURL TypeDescription ReadCube access
Bauer, Brian W.0000-0002-8939-4100
Hom, Melanie A.0000-0002-6957-2563
Karnick, Aleksandr T.0000-0002-9602-1994
Charpentier, Caroline J.0000-0002-7283-0738
Keefer, Lucas A.0000-0003-0700-6221
Capron, Daniel W.0000-0002-5066-4644
Rudd, M. David0000-0001-5916-3494
Bryan, Craig J.0000-0002-9714-0733
Additional Information:© The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Science+Business Media, LLC, part of Springer Nature 2021. Accepted 07 December 2021. Published 17 January 2022. Research reported in this publication was supported by Military Suicide Research Consortium (MSRC), an effort supported by the Office of the Assistant Secretary of Defense for Health Affairs (Award No. W81XWH-10-2-0181, PI: Bryan); the Assistant Secretary of Defense for Health Affairs through the Department of Defense Broad Agency Announcement for Extramural Medical Research (Award No. W81WXH-18-2-0022, PI: Bryan); and the Department of Defense (Award No. W81XWH-09-1-0569, PI: Rudd). The content is solely the responsibility of the authors and does not necessarily represent the official positions or views of the U.S. Government, the Department of Defense, or the Department of the Army. Contributions. BWB developed the manuscript concept. Study design and data collection were performed by CJB and MDR. BWB, MAH, ATK, and LAK performed the data analyses. BWB, MAH, and ATK drafted the paper and DWC and CJC provided critical revisions. All authors approved the final version of the manuscript for submission. Open Science Statement. In line with open research practices, the authors have provided the following information: Both of the experiments were pre-registered (omitted for masked review). Due to the propriety nature of these data and materials, all data and materials will be provided on a case-by-case basis through individual requests. The script for analyses can be found at the [omitted OSF link for blind review]. Brian W. Bauer, Melanie A. Hom, Aleksandr T. Karnick, Caroline J. Charpentier, Lucas A. Keefer, Daniel W. Capron, M. David Rudd, and Craig J. Bryan declare that they have no conflict of interest. Informed consent was obtained from all individual participants included in the study. Animal Rights. No animals were used in these studies.
Funding AgencyGrant Number
Department of DefenseW81XWH-10-2-0181
Department of DefenseW81WXH-18-2-0022
Department of DefenseW81XWH-09-1-0569
Subject Keywords:Suicide; Cognitive biases; Heuristics; Affective forecasting; Decision making
Issue or Number:4
Record Number:CaltechAUTHORS:20220204-680185000
Persistent URL:
Official Citation:Bauer, B.W., Hom, M.A., Karnick, A.T. et al. Does Hopelessness Accurately Predict How Bad You Will Feel in the Future? Initial Evidence of Affective Forecasting Errors in Individuals with Elevated Suicide Risk. Cogn Ther Res 46, 686–703 (2022).
Usage Policy:No commercial reproduction, distribution, display or performance rights in this work are provided.
ID Code:113297
Deposited By: George Porter
Deposited On:07 Feb 2022 15:19
Last Modified:03 Aug 2022 21:03

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