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Realistic observing scenarios for the next decade of early warning detection of binary neutron stars

Magee, Ryan and Borhanian, Ssohrab (2022) Realistic observing scenarios for the next decade of early warning detection of binary neutron stars. . (Unpublished)

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We describe realistic observing scenarios for early warning detection of binary neutron star mergers with the current generation of ground-based gravitational-wave detectors as these approach design sensitivity. Using Fisher analysis, we estimate that Advanced LIGO and Advanced Virgo will detect one signal before merger in their fourth observing run provided they maintain a 70% duty cycle. 60% of all observations and 8% of those detectable 20 seconds before merger will be localized to ≲ 100 deg². If KAGRA is able to achieve a 25 Mpc horizon, these prospects increase to ≲2 early detections with 70% of all BNS localized to ≲ 100 deg² by merger. As the AHKLV network approaches design sensitivity over the next ∼10 years, we expect up to 1 (14) detections made 100 (10) seconds before merger. Although adding detectors to the HLV network impacts the detection rate at ≲ 50% level, it improves localization prospects and increases the completeness of compact binary surveys. Given uncertainties in sensitivities, participating detectors, and duty cycles, we consider 103 future detector configurations so electromagnetic observers can tailor preparations towards their preferred models.

Item Type:Report or Paper (Discussion Paper)
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URLURL TypeDescription Paper
Magee, Ryan0000-0001-9769-531X
Borhanian, Ssohrab0000-0003-0161-6109
Additional Information:Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0). LIGO was constructed by the California Institute of Technology and Massachusetts Institute of Technology with funding from the National Science Foundation and operates under cooperative agreement PHY-1764464. This paper carries LIGO Document Number LIGO-P2200010. The authors are grateful for computational resources provided by the LIGO Laboratory and supported by National Science Foundation Grants PHY-0757058 and PHY-0823459. SB further acknowledges support from the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG), project MEMI number BE6301/2-1, and NSF grant PHY-1836779. We thank Surabhi Sachdev for providing a careful review of this manuscript, and BS Sathyaprakash for useful comments. RM gratefully acknowledges productive conversations with Shreya Anand and Derek Davis.
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Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG)BE6301/2-1
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LIGO DocumentP2200010
Record Number:CaltechAUTHORS:20220517-214231488
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Usage Policy:No commercial reproduction, distribution, display or performance rights in this work are provided.
ID Code:114779
Deposited By: George Porter
Deposited On:18 May 2022 17:19
Last Modified:02 Jun 2023 01:22

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