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Observing Scenarios for the Next Decade of Early Warning Detection of Binary Neutron Stars

Magee, Ryan and Borhanian, Ssohrab (2022) Observing Scenarios for the Next Decade of Early Warning Detection of Binary Neutron Stars. Astrophysical Journal, 935 (2). p. 139. ISSN 0004-637X. doi:10.3847/1538-4357/ac7f33.

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We describe representative observing scenarios for early warning detection of binary neutron star mergers with the current generation of ground-based gravitational wave detectors as they approach design sensitivity. We incorporate recent estimates of the infrastructure latency and detector sensitivities to provide up-to-date predictions. We use Fisher analysis to approximate the associated localizations, and we directly compare to Bayestar to quantify biases inherited from this approach. In particular, we show that Advanced LIGO and Advanced Virgo will detect and distribute ≲1 signal with signal-to-noise ratio greater than 15 before a merger in their fourth observing run provided they maintain a 70% duty cycle. This is consistent with previous early warning detection estimates. We estimate that 60% of all observations and 8% of those detectable 20 s before a merger will be localized to ≲100 deg2. If KAGRA is able to achieve a 25 Mpc horizon, 70% of these binary neutron stars will be localized to ≲100 deg2 by a merger. As the Aundha–Hanford–KAGRA–Livingston–Virgo network approaches design sensitivity over the next ∼10 yr, we expect one (six) early warning alerts to be distributed 60 (0) s before a merger. Although adding detectors to the Hanford–Livingston–Virgo network at design sensitivity impacts the detection rate at ≲50% level, it significantly improves localization prospects. Given uncertainties in sensitivities, participating detectors, and duty cycles, we consider 103 future detector configurations so electromagnetic observers can tailor preparations toward their preferred models.

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Magee, Ryan0000-0001-9769-531X
Borhanian, Ssohrab0000-0003-0161-6109
Additional Information:© 2022. The Author(s). Published by the American Astronomical Society. Original content from this work may be used under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 licence. Any further distribution of this work must maintain attribution to the author(s) and the title of the work, journal citation and DOI. LIGO was constructed by the California Institute of Technology and Massachusetts Institute of Technology with funding from the National Science Foundation and operates under cooperative agreement PHY-1764464. This paper carries LIGO document number LIGO-P2200010. The authors are grateful for computational resources provided by the LIGO Laboratory and supported by National Science Foundation grants PHY-0757058 and PHY-0823459. S.B. further acknowledges support from the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG), project MEMI number BE6301/2-1, and NSF grant PHY-1836779. We thank Surabhi Sachdev for providing a careful review of this manuscript, and BS Sathyaprakash for useful comments. R.M. gratefully acknowledges productive conversations with Shreya Anand and Derek Davis.
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Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG)BE6301/2-1
Issue or Number:2
Record Number:CaltechAUTHORS:20220830-524546200
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Usage Policy:No commercial reproduction, distribution, display or performance rights in this work are provided.
ID Code:116634
Deposited By: Donna Wrublewski
Deposited On:07 Sep 2022 22:28
Last Modified:01 Jun 2023 23:25

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