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Sumatran Megathrust Earthquakes: From Science to Saving Lives

Sieh, Kerry (2006) Sumatran Megathrust Earthquakes: From Science to Saving Lives. Philosophical Transactions A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, 364 (1845). pp. 1947-1963. ISSN 1364-503X.

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Most of the loss of life, property and well-being stemming from the great Sumatran earthquake and tsunami of 2004 could have been avoided and losses from similar future events can be largely prevented. However, achieving this goal requires forging a chain linking basic science—the study of why, when and where these events occur—to people's everyday lives. The intermediate links in this chain are emergency response preparedness, warning capability, education and infrastructural changes. In this article, I first describe our research on the Sumatran subduction zone. This research has allowed us to understand the basis of the earthquake cycle on the Sumatran megathrust and to reconstruct the sequence of great earthquakes that have occurred there in historic and prehistoric times. On the basis of our findings, we expect that one or two more great earthquakes and tsunamis, nearly as devastating as the 2004 event, are to be expected within the next few decades in a region of coastal Sumatra to the south of the zone affected in 2004. I go on to argue that preventing future tragedies does not necessarily involve hugely expensive or high-tech solutions such as the construction of coastal defences or sensor-based tsunami warning systems. More valuable and practical steps include extending the scientific research, educating the at-risk populations as to what to do in the event of a long-lasting earthquake (i.e. one that might be followed by a tsunami), taking simple measures to strengthen buildings against shaking, providing adequate escape routes and helping the residents of the vulnerable low-lying coastal strips to relocate their homes and businesses to land that is higher or farther from the coast. Such steps could save hundreds and thousands of lives in the coastal cities and offshore islands of western Sumatra, and have general applicability to strategies for helping the developing nations to deal with natural hazards.

Item Type:Article
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Sieh, Kerry0000-0002-7311-2447
Additional Information:© 2006 The Royal Society. One contribution of 20 to a Discussion Meeting Issue ‘Extreme natural hazards’. This is one article from the Discussion Meeting Issue ‘Extreme natural hazards’ organized by H. E. Huppert and R. S. J. Sparks
Group:Caltech Tectonics Observatory, Caltech Tectonics Observatory. Sumatran Plate Boundary
Subject Keywords:palaeoseismology; earthquakes; Sumatra; forecasts; human welfare; tsunami
Issue or Number:1845
Record Number:CaltechAUTHORS:20110111-144129729
Persistent URL:
Official Citation:Kerry Sieh. Sumatran megathrust earthquakes: from science to saving lives. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A August 15, 2006 ; 364:1947-1963; doi:10.1098/rsta.2006.1807
Usage Policy:No commercial reproduction, distribution, display or performance rights in this work are provided.
ID Code:21713
Deposited By: Tony Diaz
Deposited On:31 Jan 2011 17:58
Last Modified:09 Mar 2020 13:19

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