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Estimating long-term world coal production with logit and probit transforms

Rutledge, David (2011) Estimating long-term world coal production with logit and probit transforms. International Journal of Coal Geology, 85 (1). pp. 23-33. ISSN 0166-5162. https://resolver.caltech.edu/CaltechAUTHORS:20110309-164427691

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Abstract

An estimate for world coal production in the long run would be helpful for developing policies for alternative energy sources and for climate change. This production has often been estimated from reserves that are calculated from measurements of coal seams. We show that where the estimates based on reserves can be tested in mature coal regions, they have been too high, and that more accurate estimates can be made by curve fits to the production history. These curve fits indicate that total world production, including past and future production, will be 680 Gt. The historical range for these fits made on an annual basis from 1995 to 2009 is 653 Gt to 749 Gt, 14% in percentage terms. The curve fits also indicate that 90% of the total production will have taken place by 2070. This gives the time scale for considering alternatives. This estimate for total production is somewhat less than the current reserves plus cumulative production, 1163 Gt, and very much less than the amount of coal that the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, or IPCC, assumes is available for its scenarios. The maximum cumulative coal production through 2100 in an IPCC scenario is 3500 Gt.


Item Type:Article
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.coal.2010.10.012DOIUNSPECIFIED
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science?_ob=ArticleURL&_udi=B6V8C-51D15PF-1&_user=1010281&_coverDate=01%2F01%2F2011&_rdoc=1&_fmt=high&_orig=gateway&_origin=gateway&_sort=d&_docanchor=&view=c&_acct=C000050264&_version=1&_urlVersion=0&_userid=1010281&md5=92eafPublisherUNSPECIFIED
Additional Information:© 2010 Elsevier. An Open Access article. Received 21 July 2010; revised 27 October 2010; accepted 27 October 2010. Available online 4 November 2010. I appreciate the help of many colleagues in discussions of approaches to this estimation problem. I particularly wish to acknowledge encouragement by Romeo Flores in the Denver office of the US Geological Survey, and detailed criticism from John Rutledge of Freese and Nichols, Consulting Engineers, Fort Worth, Texas, and Euan Mearns, at the University of Aberdeen, in Scotland. Steve Mohr at the University of Newcastle, Australia, has located critical coal production records, and provided data for comparisons. This work has been supported entirely by discretionary funds from the California Institute of Technology.
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CaltechUNSPECIFIED
Subject Keywords:Coal reserves; Coal resources; Coal production estimates; IPCC; Logistic model; Cumulative normal model
Issue or Number:1
Record Number:CaltechAUTHORS:20110309-164427691
Persistent URL:https://resolver.caltech.edu/CaltechAUTHORS:20110309-164427691
Official Citation:David Rutledge, Estimating long-term world coal production with logit and probit transforms, International Journal of Coal Geology, Volume 85, Issue 1, 1 January 2011, Pages 23-33, ISSN 0166-5162, DOI: 10.1016/j.coal.2010.10.012.
Usage Policy:No commercial reproduction, distribution, display or performance rights in this work are provided.
ID Code:22786
Collection:CaltechAUTHORS
Deposited By: Jason Perez
Deposited On:10 Mar 2011 22:14
Last Modified:03 Oct 2019 02:40

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