Barbot, Sylvain and Lapusta, Nadia and Avouac, Jean-Philippe (2012) Under the Hood of the Earthquake Machine: Toward Predictive Modeling of the Seismic Cycle. Science, 336 (6082). pp. 707-710. ISSN 0036-8075. doi:10.1126/science.1218796. https://resolver.caltech.edu/CaltechAUTHORS:20120521-080956348
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Abstract
Advances in observational, laboratory, and modeling techniques open the way to the development of physical models of the seismic cycle with potentially predictive power. To explore that possibility, we developed an integrative and fully dynamic model of the Parkfield segment of the San Andreas Fault. The model succeeds in reproducing a realistic earthquake sequence of irregular moment magnitude (M_w) 6.0 main shocks—including events similar to the ones in 1966 and 2004—and provides an excellent match for the detailed interseismic, coseismic, and postseismic observations collected along this fault during the most recent earthquake cycle. Such calibrated physical models provide new ways to assess seismic hazards and forecast seismicity response to perturbations of natural or anthropogenic origins.
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| Additional Information: | © 2012 American Association for the Advancement of Science. Received for publication 6 January 2012. Accepted for publication 30 March 2012. This study was supported partly by the National Science Foundation (grant EAR 0548277 to N.L.), the Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation, and the Southern California Earthquake Center (SCEC). This is Tectonics Observatory contribution #194 and SCEC #1600. Numerical simulations for this study were carried out on the CITerra Dell cluster at the Division of Geological and Planetary Sciences of the California Institute of Technology. J.P.A. worked on this study while on sabbatical at GFZ (German Research Centre for Geosciences) (Potsdam, Germany) with support from the Humboldt Foundation. GPS data used in this study are available from the Scripps Orbit and Permanent Array Center. Numerical data are available upon request to the authors. | |||||||||
| Group: | Caltech Tectonics Observatory, Seismological Laboratory, Division of Geological and Planetary Sciences | |||||||||
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| Issue or Number: | 6082 | |||||||||
| DOI: | 10.1126/science.1218796 | |||||||||
| Record Number: | CaltechAUTHORS:20120521-080956348 | |||||||||
| Persistent URL: | https://resolver.caltech.edu/CaltechAUTHORS:20120521-080956348 | |||||||||
| Official Citation: | Under the Hood of the Earthquake Machine: Toward Predictive Modeling of the Seismic Cycle Sylvain Barbot, Nadia Lapusta, and Jean-Philippe Avouac Science 11 May 2012: 707-710 | |||||||||
| Usage Policy: | No commercial reproduction, distribution, display or performance rights in this work are provided. | |||||||||
| ID Code: | 31555 | |||||||||
| Collection: | CaltechAUTHORS | |||||||||
| Deposited By: | Ruth Sustaita | |||||||||
| Deposited On: | 21 May 2012 15:45 | |||||||||
| Last Modified: | 09 Nov 2021 19:55 |
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