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Under the Hood of the Earthquake Machine: Toward Predictive Modeling of the Seismic Cycle

Barbot, Sylvain and Lapusta, Nadia and Avouac, Jean-Philippe (2012) Under the Hood of the Earthquake Machine: Toward Predictive Modeling of the Seismic Cycle. Science, 336 (6082). pp. 707-710. ISSN 0036-8075. doi:10.1126/science.1218796.

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Advances in observational, laboratory, and modeling techniques open the way to the development of physical models of the seismic cycle with potentially predictive power. To explore that possibility, we developed an integrative and fully dynamic model of the Parkfield segment of the San Andreas Fault. The model succeeds in reproducing a realistic earthquake sequence of irregular moment magnitude (M_w) 6.0 main shocks—including events similar to the ones in 1966 and 2004—and provides an excellent match for the detailed interseismic, coseismic, and postseismic observations collected along this fault during the most recent earthquake cycle. Such calibrated physical models provide new ways to assess seismic hazards and forecast seismicity response to perturbations of natural or anthropogenic origins.

Item Type:Article
Related URLs:
URLURL TypeDescription
Barbot, Sylvain0000-0003-4257-7409
Lapusta, Nadia0000-0001-6558-0323
Avouac, Jean-Philippe0000-0002-3060-8442
Additional Information:© 2012 American Association for the Advancement of Science. Received for publication 6 January 2012. Accepted for publication 30 March 2012. This study was supported partly by the National Science Foundation (grant EAR 0548277 to N.L.), the Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation, and the Southern California Earthquake Center (SCEC). This is Tectonics Observatory contribution #194 and SCEC #1600. Numerical simulations for this study were carried out on the CITerra Dell cluster at the Division of Geological and Planetary Sciences of the California Institute of Technology. J.P.A. worked on this study while on sabbatical at GFZ (German Research Centre for Geosciences) (Potsdam, Germany) with support from the Humboldt Foundation. GPS data used in this study are available from the Scripps Orbit and Permanent Array Center. Numerical data are available upon request to the authors.
Group:Caltech Tectonics Observatory, Seismological Laboratory, Division of Geological and Planetary Sciences
Funding AgencyGrant Number
Gordon and Betty Moore FoundationUNSPECIFIED
Southern California Earthquake Center (SCEC)UNSPECIFIED
Other Numbering System:
Other Numbering System NameOther Numbering System ID
Caltech Tectonics Observatory194
Southern California Earthquake Center (SCEC)1600
Issue or Number:6082
Record Number:CaltechAUTHORS:20120521-080956348
Persistent URL:
Official Citation:Under the Hood of the Earthquake Machine: Toward Predictive Modeling of the Seismic Cycle Sylvain Barbot, Nadia Lapusta, and Jean-Philippe Avouac Science 11 May 2012: 707-710
Usage Policy:No commercial reproduction, distribution, display or performance rights in this work are provided.
ID Code:31555
Deposited By: Ruth Sustaita
Deposited On:21 May 2012 15:45
Last Modified:09 Nov 2021 19:55

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