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Test of a Threshold‐Based Earthquake Early‐Warning Method Using Japanese Data

Colombelli, Simona and Amoroso, Ortensia and Zollo, Aldo and Kanamori, Hiroo (2012) Test of a Threshold‐Based Earthquake Early‐Warning Method Using Japanese Data. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 102 (3). pp. 1266-1275. ISSN 0037-1106.

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Most of existing earthquake early‐warning systems are regional or on‐site systems. A new concept is the integration of these approaches for the definition of alert levels and the estimation of the earthquake potential damage zone (PDZ). The key element of the method is the real‐time, simultaneous measurement of initial peak displacement (P_d) and period parameter (τ_c) in a 3‐s window after the first P‐wave arrival time at accelerometer stations located at increasing distances from the epicenter. As for the on‐site approach, the recorded values of P_d and τ_c are compared to threshold values, which are set for a minimum magnitude M 6 and instrumental intensity I_MM VII, according to empirical regression analysis of strong‐motion data from different seismic regions. At each recording site the alert level is assigned based on a decisional table with four entries defined by threshold values of the parameters P_d and τ_c. A regional network of stations provides the event location and transmits the information about the alert levels recorded at near‐source stations to more distant sites, before the arrival of the most destructive phase. We present the results of performance tests of this method using ten M>6 Japanese earthquakes that occurred in the period 2000–2009 and propose a very robust methodology for mapping the PDZ in the first seconds after a moderate‐to‐large earthquake. The studied cases displayed a very good matching between the rapidly predicted earthquake PDZ inferred from initial P‐peak displacement amplitudes and the instrumental intensity map, the latter being mapped after the event, using peak ground velocity and/or acceleration, or from field macroseismic surveys.

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Additional Information:© 2012 by the Seismological Society of America. Manuscript received 17 May 2011. This work was financially supported by Dipartimento della Protezione Civile (DPC) through Analisi e Monitoraggio del Rischio Ambientale (AMRA, S.c. a r.l., Analysis and Monitoring of Environmental Risk) within the research contract REAC, by EU-FP7 in the framework of project REAKT and by project RELUIS 2011. We acknowledge the Annual Bulletin of Japan (2008), published by the Japan Meteorological Agency (2010) for the intensity data. We also thank Drs. Mitsuyuki Hoshiba and Nobuo Hamada for making us available the JMA intensity data.
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Dipartimento della Protezione Civile (DPC)REAC
European Union (EU) FP7REAKT
European Union (EU) FP7RELUIS 2011
Record Number:CaltechAUTHORS:20120706-141630079
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Usage Policy:No commercial reproduction, distribution, display or performance rights in this work are provided.
ID Code:32286
Deposited By: Jason Perez
Deposited On:09 Jul 2012 17:56
Last Modified:23 Aug 2016 00:12

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