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Simplified Estimation of Economic Seismic Risk for Buildings

Porter, Keith A. and Beck, James L. and Shaikhutdinov, Rustem (2004) Simplified Estimation of Economic Seismic Risk for Buildings. Earthquake Spectra, 20 (4). pp. 1239-1263. ISSN 8755-2930. doi:10.1193/1.1809129.

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A seismic risk assessment is often performed on behalf of a buyer of commercial buildings in seismically active regions. One outcome of the assessment is that a probable maximum loss (PML) is computed. PML is of limited use to real-estate investors as it has no place in a standard financial analysis and reflects too long a planning period. We introduce an alternative to PML called probable frequent loss (PFL), defined as the mean loss resulting from shaking with 10% exceedance probability in 5 years. PFL is approximately related to expected annualized loss (EAL) through a site economic hazard coefficient (H) introduced here. PFL and EAL offer three advantages over PML: (1) meaningful planning period; (2) applicability in financial analysis (making seismic risk a potential market force); and (3) can be estimated using a single linear structural analysis, via a simplified method called linear assembly-based vulnerability (LABV) that is presented in this work. We also present a simple decision-analysis framework for real-estate investments in seismic regions, accounting for risk aversion. We show that market risk overwhelms uncertainty in seismic risk, allowing one to consider only expected consequences in seismic risk. We illustrate using 15 buildings, including a 7-story nonductile reinforced-concrete moment-frame building in Van Nuys, California, and 14 buildings from the CUREE-Caltech Woodframe Project.

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Additional Information:© 2004, Earthquake Engineering Research Institute. This article may be downloaded for personal use only. Any other use requires prior permission of the Earthquake Engineering Research Institute. Received 21 July 2003; accepted 16 April 2004. This research was supported by the George W. Housner Senior Research Fellowship, the CUREE-Kajima Joint Research Program Phase IV, and the CUREE-Caltech Woodframe Project. Thanks also to David L. McCormick, Steven K. Harris, and Ron Mayes (Simpson, Gumpertz & Heger, San Francisco), and to Greg Flynn (Flynn Holdings, San Francisco), and Jeff Berger (Arden Realty, Los Angeles), who provided advice on portions of the research. Their contributions are gratefully acknowledged.
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George W. Housner Senior Research FellowshipUNSPECIFIED
CUREE-Kajima Joint Research ProgramUNSPECIFIED
CUREE-Caltech Woodframe ProjectUNSPECIFIED
Issue or Number:4
Record Number:CaltechAUTHORS:20120810-113856444
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Usage Policy:No commercial reproduction, distribution, display or performance rights in this work are provided.
ID Code:33090
Deposited By: Sydney Garstang
Deposited On:10 Aug 2012 23:56
Last Modified:09 Nov 2021 21:32

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