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Effects of Two Alternative Representations of Ground Motion Uncertainty on Probabilistic Seismic Demand Assessment of Structures

Jalayer, F. and Beck, J. L. (2008) Effects of Two Alternative Representations of Ground Motion Uncertainty on Probabilistic Seismic Demand Assessment of Structures. Earthquake Engineering and Structural Dynamics, 37 (1). pp. 61-79. ISSN 0098-8847. doi:10.1002/eqe.745.

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A probabilistic representation of the entire ground-motion time history can be constructed based on a stochastic model that depends on seismic source parameters. An advanced stochastic simulation scheme known as Subset Simulation can then be used to efficiently compute the small failure probabilities corresponding to structural limit states. Alternatively, the uncertainty in the ground motion can be represented by adopting a parameter (or a vector of parameters) known as the intensity measure (IM) that captures the dominant features of the ground shaking. Structural performance assessment based on this representation can be broken down into two parts, namely, the structure-specific part requiring performance assessment for a given value of the IM, and the site-specific part requiring estimation of the likelihood that ground shaking with a given value of the IM takes place. The effect of these two alternative representations of ground-motion uncertainty on probabilistic structural response is investigated for two hazard cases. In the first case, these two approaches are compared for a scenario earthquake event with a given magnitude and distance. In the second case, they are compared using a probabilistic seismic hazard analysis to take into account the potential of the surrounding faults to produce events with a range of possible magnitudes and distances. The two approaches are compared on the basis of the probabilistic response of an existing reinforced-concrete frame structure, which is known to have suffered shear failure in its columns during the 1994 Northridge Earthquake in Los Angeles, California.

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Additional Information:Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Received 6 September 2005; Revised 19 June 2007; Accepted 19 June 2007. Contract/grant sponsor: National Science Foundation; contract/grant number: EEC-9701568. Contract/grant sponsor: California Institute of Technology. This work was supported in part by the Earthquake Engineering Research Centers Program of the National Science Foundation under Award Number EEC-9701568 through the Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research Center (PEER). This support is gratefully acknowledged. Any opinions, findings and conclusions or recommendations expressed in this material are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of the National Science Foundation. The authors would also like to acknowledge Professor John Hall and Dr Keith Porter for their invaluable support and help. The first author also acknowledges the support from a George W. Housner Post-doctoral Fellowship in Civil Engineering from the California Institute of Technology.
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Subject Keywords:structural reliability; subset simulation; seismic risk analysis; probabilistic seismic hazard analysis; performance-based design; earthquake engineering; stochastic ground motion
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Record Number:CaltechAUTHORS:20120817-160737360
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Usage Policy:No commercial reproduction, distribution, display or performance rights in this work are provided.
ID Code:33324
Deposited By: Carmen Nemer-Sirois
Deposited On:20 Aug 2012 23:04
Last Modified:09 Nov 2021 21:33

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