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Early Warning Systems for Large Earthquakes: Classification of Near-source and Far-source Stations by using the Bayesian Model Class Selection

Yamada, M. and Heaton, T. H. and Beck, J. L. (2007) Early Warning Systems for Large Earthquakes: Classification of Near-source and Far-source Stations by using the Bayesian Model Class Selection. In: Applications of statistics and probability in civil engineering : proceedings of the 10th International Conference on Applications of Statistics and Probability in Civil Engineering, ICASP10, Tokyo, Japan, 31-July-3 August, 2007. Taylor & Francis , London, pp. 19-26. ISBN 978-0-415-45211-3. https://resolver.caltech.edu/CaltechAUTHORS:20120904-164125964

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Abstract

To estimate the fault dimension of an earthquake in real time, we present a methodology to classify seismic records into near-source or far-source records. This study analyzes peak ground motions and finds the function which best classifies near-source and far-source records based on these parameters. We perform: Bayesian methods to find the coefficients of the linear discriminant function; and Bayesian model class selection to find the best combination of the peak ground motion parameters. Bayesian model class selection shows that the combination of vertical acceleration and horizontal velocity produces the best performance for the classification. The linear discriminant function produced classifies near-source and far-source data and it gives the probability for a station to be near-source, based on the ground motion measurements. This discriminant function is useful to estimate the fault rupture dimension in real time, especially for large earthquakes


Item Type:Book Section
ORCID:
AuthorORCID
Heaton, T. H.0000-0003-3363-2197
Record Number:CaltechAUTHORS:20120904-164125964
Persistent URL:https://resolver.caltech.edu/CaltechAUTHORS:20120904-164125964
Usage Policy:No commercial reproduction, distribution, display or performance rights in this work are provided.
ID Code:33835
Collection:CaltechAUTHORS
Deposited By: Carmen Nemer-Sirois
Deposited On:21 Nov 2012 19:09
Last Modified:03 Oct 2019 04:13

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