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Simplified Estimation of Seismic Life-Cycle Costs

Beck, James L. and Porter, Keith A. and Shaikhutdinov, Rustem V. (2004) Simplified Estimation of Seismic Life-Cycle Costs. In: Life-Cycle Performance of Deteriorating Structures: Assessment, Design and Management. ASCE , Reston, VA, pp. 229-237. ISBN 078440707X.

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Most seismic risk assessments for economic decision-making of commercial buildings are based on a risk metric called probable maximum loss (PML) that is associated with losses from an earthquake shaking severity with a 500-year return period. For various reasons, PML is a poor metric for economic performance assessment. This paper introduces an analogous measure, the probable frequent loss (PFL), defined as the mean loss resulting from shaking with 10% exceedance probability in 5 years (an approximately 50-year event). It overcomes many of the problems of PML, and offers the advantage that expected seismic life-cycle costs and expected annualized loss are approximately proportional to PFL through a seismic hazard coefficient that depends on site characteristics, fundamental period, and damage shaking threshold, and can be tabulated for ready use. A brief review is given of a building-specific seismic vulnerability method that may be used to calculate PFL.

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Additional Information:Portions of this research were supported by the George W. Hausner Senior Research Fellowship, Phase IV of the CUREE-Kajima Joint Research Program and the CUREE-Caltech Woodframe Project. Thanks also to David L. McCormick. Steven K. Harris. Ron Mayes, Greg Flynn, and Jeff Berger. who provided advice on portions of the research. Their contributions are gratefully acknowledged.
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George W. Housner Senior Research FellowshipUNSPECIFIED
CUREE-Kajima Joint Research ProgramUNSPECIFIED
CUREE-Caltech Woodframe ProjectUNSPECIFIED
Subject Keywords:probable maximum loss. probable frequent loss, expected annualized loss, loss estimation, seismic risk, seismic life-cycle costs
Record Number:CaltechAUTHORS:20120919-150626518
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Usage Policy:No commercial reproduction, distribution, display or performance rights in this work are provided.
ID Code:34228
Deposited By: Carmen Nemer-Sirois
Deposited On:01 Dec 2012 00:49
Last Modified:09 Nov 2021 23:07

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