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Application of Subset Simulation to Seismic Risk Analysis

Au, Siu-Kui and Beck, James L. (2002) Application of Subset Simulation to Seismic Risk Analysis. In: Proceedings of the 15th ASCE Engineering Mechanics Conference. Columbia University , Paper No. 326.

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This paper presents the application of a new reliability method called Subset Simulation to seismic risk analysis of a structure, where the exceedance of some performance quantity, such as the peak interstory drift, above a specified threshold level is considered for the case of uncertain seismic excitation. This involves analyzing the well-known but difficult first-passage failure problem. Failure analysis is also carried out using results from Subset Simulation which yields information about the probable scenarios that may occur in case of failure. The results show that for given magnitude and epicentral distance (which are related to the ‘intensity’ of shaking), the probable mode of failure is due to a ‘resonance effect.’ On the other hand, when the magnitude and epicentral distance are considered to be uncertain, the probable failure mode correspondsto the occurrence of ‘large-magnitude, small epicentral distance’ earthquakes.

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Additional Information:This paper is based upon work partly supported by the Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research Center under National Science Foundation Cooperative Agreement No. CMS-9701568. This support is gratefully acknowledged. Part of this work was prepared when the first author was at graduate standing at the California Institute of Technology, whose generous financial support is gratefully acknowledged.
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Subject Keywords:First passage problem, Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulation, reliability, Subset Simulation, seismic risk
Record Number:CaltechAUTHORS:20120919-155317476
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Usage Policy:No commercial reproduction, distribution, display or performance rights in this work are provided.
ID Code:34241
Deposited By: Carmen Nemer-Sirois
Deposited On:21 Sep 2012 23:32
Last Modified:03 Oct 2019 04:17

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