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Simplified Estimation of Economic Seismic Risk for Buildings

Porter, Keith A. and Beck, James L. and Shaikhutdinov, Rustem V. (2004) Simplified Estimation of Economic Seismic Risk for Buildings. In: 13th World Conference on Earthquake Engineering : conference proceedings, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada, August 1-6, 2004. , Paper No. 1755.

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A seismic risk assessment is often performed on behalf of a buyer of a commercial building in a seismically active region. One outcome of the assessment is that a probable maximum loss (PML) is computed. PML is of limited use to real-estate investors as it has no place in a standard financial analysis and reflects too long a planning period. We introduce an alternative to PML called probable frequent loss (PFL), which is defined as the mean loss resulting from shaking with 10% exceedance probability in 5 years. PFL is approximately related to expected annualized loss (EAL) through an economic hazard coefficient that can be tabulated or mapped. PFL and EAL offer three advantages over PML: (1) their planning period is meaningful to investors; (2) they can be used in financial analysis (making seismic risk a potential market force); and (3) rather than relying on expert opinion, one can estimate PFL and EAL using rigorous performance-based earthquake engineering (PBEE) principles, and yet produce a good approximation using a single linear structural analysis. We illustrate using 15 buildings, including a 7- story nonductile reinforced-concrete moment-frame building in Van Nuys, California, and 14 buildings from the CUREE-Caltech Woodframe Project.

Item Type:Book Section
Additional Information:This research was supported by the George W. Housner Senior Research Fellowship, the CUREE-Kajima Joint Research Program Phase IV and the CUREE-Caltech Woodframe Project. Thanks also to David L. McCormick, Steven K. Harris, and Ron Mayes (Simpson, Gumpertz & Heger, San Francisco), and to Greg Flynn (Flynn Holdings, San Francisco), and Jeff Berger (Arden Realty, Los Angeles), who provided advice on portions of the research. Their contributions are gratefully acknowledged.
Funding AgencyGrant Number
George W. Housner Senior Research FellowshipUNSPECIFIED
CUREE-Kajima Joint Research Program Phase VUNSPECIFIED
CUREE-Caltech Woodframe ProjectUNSPECIFIED
Record Number:CaltechAUTHORS:20121026-154343702
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Usage Policy:No commercial reproduction, distribution, display or performance rights in this work are provided.
ID Code:35131
Deposited On:26 Oct 2012 23:27
Last Modified:03 Oct 2019 04:25

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