How We Choose One over Another: Predicting Trial-by-Trial Preference Decision

Abstract

Preference formation is a complex problem as it is subjective, involves emotion, is led by implicit processes, and changes depending on the context even within the same individual. Thus, scientific attempts to predict preference are challenging, yet quite important for basic understanding of human decision making mechanisms, but prediction in a group-average sense has only a limited significance. In this study, we predicted preferential decisions on a trial by trial basis based on brain responses occurring before the individuals made their decisions explicit. Participants made a binary preference decision of approachability based on faces while their electrophysiological responses were recorded. An artificial neural network based pattern-classifier was used with time-frequency resolved patterns of a functional connectivity measure as features for the classifier. We were able to predict preference decisions with a mean accuracy of 74.3±2.79% at participant-independent level and of 91.4±3.8% at participant-dependent level. Further, we revealed a causal role of the first impression on final decision and demonstrated the temporal trajectory of preference decision formation.