A Caltech Library Service

Response of tall steel buildings in southern California to the magnitude 7.8 shakeout scenario earthquake

Muto, M. and Krishnan, S. (2008) Response of tall steel buildings in southern California to the magnitude 7.8 shakeout scenario earthquake. In: Inaugural International Conference of the Engineering Mechanics Institute, May 18–21, 2008, Minneapolis, MN. (Submitted)

PDF - Published Version
See Usage Policy.


Use this Persistent URL to link to this item:


Currently, there is a significant campaign being undertaken in southern California to increase public awareness and readiness for the next large earthquake along the San Andreas Fault, culminating in a large-scale earthquake response exercise. The USGS ShakeOut scenario is a key element to understanding the likely effects of such an event. A source model for a M7.8 scenario earthquake has been created (Hudnet et al. 2007), and used in conjunction with a velocity model for southern California to generate simulated ground motions for the event throughout the region (Graves et al. 2008). We were charged by the USGS to provide one plausible realization of the effects of the scenario event on tall steel moment-frame buildings. We have used the simulated ground motions with three-dimensional non-linear finite element models of three buildings (in two orthogonal orientations and two different connection fragility conditions, for a total of twelve cases) in the 20-story class to simulate structural responses at 784 analysis sites spaced at approximately 4 km throughout the San Fernando Valley, the San Gabriel Valley and the Los Angeles Basin. Based on the simulation results and available information on the number and distribution of steel buildings, we have recommended that the ShakeOut drill be planned with a damage scenario comprising of 5% of the estimated 150 steel moment frame structures in the 10-30 story range collapsing (8 collapses), 10% of the structures red-tagged (16 red-tagged buildings), 15% of the structures with damage serious enough to cause loss of life (24 buildings with fatalities), and 20% of the structures with visible damage requiring building closure (32 buildings with visible damage and possible injuries). This paper details the analytical study underlying these recommendations.

Item Type:Conference or Workshop Item (Paper)
Related URLs:
URLURL TypeDescription
Krishnan, S.0000-0002-2594-1523
Additional Information:This study was supported in part by a USGS Multi-Hazards Demonstration Project grant. The source model for the shakeout scenario earthquake was generated by Brad Aagaard (USGS), Ken Hudnut (USGS), and Rob Graves (URS Corporation) in consultation with the SCEC community, while the ground motion simulations were performed by Rob Graves. The numerical simulations were performed in part on the CITerra, a highperformance computing cluster (HPCC) hosted by the Division of Geological and Planetary Sciences at the California Institute of Technology, and GARUDA, an HPCC dedicated for end-to-end simulations hosted within the Civil Engineering department at Caltech. The purchase and installation of GARUDA were made possible in large part by the Ruth Haskell Research Fund, the Tomiyasu Discovery Fund, and Dell Inc.
Funding AgencyGrant Number
USGS Multi-Hazards Demonstration Project GrantUNSPECIFIED
Record Number:CaltechAUTHORS:20130306-130700318
Persistent URL:
Usage Policy:No commercial reproduction, distribution, display or performance rights in this work are provided.
ID Code:37348
Deposited By: Tony Diaz
Deposited On:19 Jul 2013 22:13
Last Modified:03 Oct 2019 04:46

Repository Staff Only: item control page