Intertemporal Speculation Under Uncertain Future Demand, Experimental Results

Abstract

This paper explores a market in which a subset of agents acting independently without direct communication can purchase commodities to carry forward in time in the face of uncertain future demand. The hypothesis that the equilibrating properties of markets will coordinate decentralized decisions to speculate as if all information was public gives no theory about the mechanism through which such information transfer might take place. The results provide general support for the validity of the equilibration suggestion. The mechanisms of information transfer seem to be located in the local nature of the price formation and carry-forward decisions coupled with a tendency for traders to specialize their activities.