A Caltech Library Service

A Parimutuel-like Mechanism from Information Aggregation: A Field Test Inside Intel

Plott, Charles R. and Gillen, Benjamin J. and Shum, Matthew (2014) A Parimutuel-like Mechanism from Information Aggregation: A Field Test Inside Intel. Social Science Working Paper, 1367. California Institute of Technology , Pasadena, CA. (Unpublished)

PDF (Nov. 13, 2013) - Submitted Version
See Usage Policy.

PDF (Sept. 27, 2014) - Accepted Version
See Usage Policy.


Use this Persistent URL to link to this item:


Field tests of a new Information Aggregation Mechanism (IAM) developed via laboratory experimental methods were implemented inside Intel Corporation for sales forecasting. The IAM, which incorporates selected features of parimutuel betting, is uniquely designed to collect and quantize as probability distributions any dispersed, subjectively held information that might exist. The tests demonstrate the robustness of experimental results and the practical usefulness of the IAM. The IAM yields predicted distributions of future sales that are very accurate at short horizons; indeed, more accurate than Intel's official in-house forecast 59% of the time. A symmetric game model suggests why the IAM works.

Item Type:Report or Paper (Working Paper)
Related URLs:
URLURL TypeDescription ItemPublished Version
Shum, Matthew0000-0002-6262-915X
Additional Information:The financial support of the Lee Center for Advanced Networking, the Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation, and the Laboratory of Experimental Economics and Political Science is gratefully acknowledged. We thank Dan Zhou for providing excellent research assistance, and Chew Soo Hong, Erik Snowberg, Allan Timmermann, Michael Waldman, and seminar audiences at Arizona State, EIEF Roma, MIT, Rice, UCSD, Universidad Carlos III Madrid, IIOC 2013, and the Econometric Society NASM 2013 for helpful comments.
Group:Social Science Working Papers
Funding AgencyGrant Number
Gordon and Betty Moore FoundationUNSPECIFIED
Caltech Laboratory for Experimental Economics and Political ScienceUNSPECIFIED
Caltech Lee Center for Advanced NetworkingUNSPECIFIED
Series Name:Social Science Working Paper
Issue or Number:1367
Record Number:CaltechAUTHORS:20140403-161916829
Persistent URL:
Usage Policy:No commercial reproduction, distribution, display or performance rights in this work are provided.
ID Code:44652
Deposited On:20 Oct 2014 18:24
Last Modified:03 Oct 2019 06:20

Repository Staff Only: item control page