Hitchcock, Christopher (2004) Beauty and the Bets. Synthese, 139 (3). pp. 405-420. ISSN 0039-7857. https://resolver.caltech.edu/CaltechAUTHORS:20140407-114023925
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Abstract
In the Sleeping Beauty problem, Beauty is uncertain whether the outcome of a certain coin toss was heads or tails. One argument suggests that her degree of belief in heads should be 1/3, while a second suggests that it should be 1/2. Prima facie, the argument for 1/2 appears to be stronger. I offer a diachronic Dutch Book argument in favor of 1/3. Even for those who are not routinely persuaded by diachronic Dutch Book arguments, this one has some important morals.
| Item Type: | Article | |||||||||
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| Additional Information: | © 2004 Kluwer Academic Publishers. | |||||||||
| Issue or Number: | 3 | |||||||||
| Record Number: | CaltechAUTHORS:20140407-114023925 | |||||||||
| Persistent URL: | https://resolver.caltech.edu/CaltechAUTHORS:20140407-114023925 | |||||||||
| Official Citation: | Hitchcock, C. Synthese (2004) 139: 405. https://doi.org/10.1023/B:SYNT.0000024889.29125.c0 | |||||||||
| Usage Policy: | No commercial reproduction, distribution, display or performance rights in this work are provided. | |||||||||
| ID Code: | 44701 | |||||||||
| Collection: | CaltechAUTHORS | |||||||||
| Deposited By: | Susan Vite | |||||||||
| Deposited On: | 07 Apr 2014 22:42 | |||||||||
| Last Modified: | 03 Oct 2019 06:21 |
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