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Beauty and the Bets

Hitchcock, Christopher (2004) Beauty and the Bets. Synthese, 139 (3). pp. 405-420. ISSN 0039-7857.

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In the Sleeping Beauty problem, Beauty is uncertain whether the outcome of a certain coin toss was heads or tails. One argument suggests that her degree of belief in heads should be 1/3, while a second suggests that it should be 1/2. Prima facie, the argument for 1/2 appears to be stronger. I offer a diachronic Dutch Book argument in favor of 1/3. Even for those who are not routinely persuaded by diachronic Dutch Book arguments, this one has some important morals.

Item Type:Article
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Additional Information:© 2004 Kluwer Academic Publishers.
Issue or Number:3
Record Number:CaltechAUTHORS:20140407-114023925
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Official Citation:Hitchcock, C. Synthese (2004) 139: 405.
Usage Policy:No commercial reproduction, distribution, display or performance rights in this work are provided.
ID Code:44701
Deposited On:07 Apr 2014 22:42
Last Modified:03 Oct 2019 06:21

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