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Foreshocks, Aftershocks, and Earthquake Probabilities: Accounting for the Landers Earthquake

Jones, Lucile M. (1994) Foreshocks, Aftershocks, and Earthquake Probabilities: Accounting for the Landers Earthquake. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 84 (3). pp. 892-899. ISSN 0037-1106. https://resolver.caltech.edu/CaltechAUTHORS:20140806-111429292

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Abstract

The equation to determine the probability that an earthquake occurring near a major fault will be a foreshock to a mainshock on that fault is modified to include the case of aftershocks to a previous earthquake occurring near the fault. The addition of aftershocks to the background seismicity makes its less probable that an earthquake will be a foreshock, because nonforeshocks have become more common. As the aftershocks decay with time, the probability that an earthquake will be a foreshock increases. However, fault interactions between the first mainshock and the major fault can increase the long-term probability of a characteristic earthquake on that fault, which will, in turn, increase the probability that an event is a foreshock, compensating for the decrease caused by the aftershocks.


Item Type:Article
Related URLs:
URLURL TypeDescription
http://bssa.geoscienceworld.org/content/84/3/892.abstractPublisherArticle
ORCID:
AuthorORCID
Jones, Lucile M.0000-0002-2690-3051
Additional Information:© 1994, by the Seismological Society of America. Manuscript received 2 August 1993. I would like to thank Andy Michael, Egill Hauksson, Jim Savage, and especially Tom Heaton for careful and thoughtful reviews of this article.
Issue or Number:3
Record Number:CaltechAUTHORS:20140806-111429292
Persistent URL:https://resolver.caltech.edu/CaltechAUTHORS:20140806-111429292
Official Citation:Lucile M. Jones Foreshocks, aftershocks, and earthquake probabilities: Accounting for the landers earthquake Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, June 1994, v. 84, p. 892-899
Usage Policy:No commercial reproduction, distribution, display or performance rights in this work are provided.
ID Code:48075
Collection:CaltechAUTHORS
Deposited By: Ruth Sustaita
Deposited On:06 Aug 2014 18:25
Last Modified:24 Feb 2020 10:30

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