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Slip rates and spatially variable creep on faults of the northern San Andreas system inferred through Bayesian inversion of Global Positioning System data

Murray, Jessica R. and Minson, Sarah E. and Svarc, Jerry L. (2014) Slip rates and spatially variable creep on faults of the northern San Andreas system inferred through Bayesian inversion of Global Positioning System data. Journal of Geophysical Research. Solid Earth, 119 (7). pp. 6023-6047. ISSN 2169-9313. doi:10.1002/2014JB010966. https://resolver.caltech.edu/CaltechAUTHORS:20140911-075334731

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Abstract

Fault creep, depending on its rate and spatial extent, is thought to reduce earthquake hazard by releasing tectonic strain aseismically. We use Bayesian inversion and a newly expanded GPS data set to infer the deep slip rates below assigned locking depths on the San Andreas, Maacama, and Bartlett Springs Faults of Northern California and, for the latter two, the spatially variable interseismic creep rate above the locking depth. We estimate deep slip rates of 21.5 ± 0.5, 13.1 ± 0.8, and 7.5 ± 0.7 mm/yr below 16 km, 9 km, and 13 km on the San Andreas, Maacama, and Bartlett Springs Faults, respectively. We infer that on average the Bartlett Springs fault creeps from the Earth's surface to 13 km depth, and below 5 km the creep rate approaches the deep slip rate. This implies that microseismicity may extend below the locking depth; however, we cannot rule out the presence of locked patches in the seismogenic zone that could generate moderate earthquakes. Our estimated Maacama creep rate, while comparable to the inferred deep slip rate at the Earth's surface, decreases with depth, implying a slip deficit exists. The Maacama deep slip rate estimate, 13.1 mm/yr, exceeds long-term geologic slip rate estimates, perhaps due to distributed off-fault strain or the presence of multiple active fault strands. While our creep rate estimates are relatively insensitive to choice of model locking depth, insufficient independent information regarding locking depths is a source of epistemic uncertainty that impacts deep slip rate estimates.


Item Type:Article
Related URLs:
URLURL TypeDescription
http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/2014JB010966 DOIArticle
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2014JB010966/abstractPublisherArticle
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2014JB010966/suppinfoPublisherSupportin Information
ORCID:
AuthorORCID
Minson, Sarah E.0000-0001-5869-3477
Additional Information:© 2014 American Geophysical Union. Received 18 JAN 2014; Accepted 16 JUN 2014; Accepted article online 24 JUN 2014; Published online 21 JUL 2014. The authors wish to thank Roland Bürgmann, Yariv Hamiel, Ruth Harris, and Robert Simpson for careful reviews as well as William Ellsworth, Jeanne Hardebeck, James Lienkaemper, and William Page for useful discussions. This work was funded by Pacific Gas and Electric Company and the Earthquake Hazards Program of the USGS. Any use of trade, firm, or product names is for descriptive purposes only and does not imply endorsement by the U.S. Government.
Funders:
Funding AgencyGrant Number
Pacific Gas and Electric CompanyUNSPECIFIED
USGS Earthquake Hazards ProgramUNSPECIFIED
Subject Keywords:San Andreas system; Bayesian inversion; fault creep; slip rates; Global Positioning System
Issue or Number:7
DOI:10.1002/2014JB010966
Record Number:CaltechAUTHORS:20140911-075334731
Persistent URL:https://resolver.caltech.edu/CaltechAUTHORS:20140911-075334731
Official Citation:Murray, J. R., S. E. Minson, and J. L. Svarc (2014), Slip rates and spatially variable creep on faults of the northern San Andreas system inferred through Bayesian inversion of Global Positioning System data, J. Geophys. Res. Solid Earth, 119, 6023–6047, doi:10.1002/2014JB010966
Usage Policy:No commercial reproduction, distribution, display or performance rights in this work are provided.
ID Code:49570
Collection:CaltechAUTHORS
Deposited By: Tony Diaz
Deposited On:11 Sep 2014 22:12
Last Modified:10 Nov 2021 18:45

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