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Short-term earthquake hazard assessment for the San Andreas Fault in southern California

Jones, Lucile M. and Sieh, Kerry and Agnew, Duncan and Allen, Clarence and Bilham, Roger and Ghilarducci, Mark and Hager, Bradford and Hauksson, Egill and Hudnut, Kenneth and Jackson, David D. and Sylvester, Arthur and Aki, Keiti and Wyatt, Frank (1991) Short-term earthquake hazard assessment for the San Andreas Fault in southern California. U.S. Geological Survey open-file report, 91-32. U.S. Geological Survey , Denver, CO.

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The southernmost 200 km of the San Andreas fault in California, from Cajon Pass southeast to Bombay Beach on the Salton Sea (Figure 1), has not produced a major earthquake within the historic record. Both geodetic evidence of continuing strain accumulation (Savage et al, 1986) and the occurrence of recent prehistoric large earthquakes (Sieh, 1986; Sieh and Williams, 1990), however, lead us to conclude that this fault segment will eventually produce great earthquakes that pose one of the greatest hazards to southern California. An estimated 1.0-1.5 million people now live adjacent to the San Andreas fault within the projected zone of severe shaking for such an earthquake. A magnitude 7.5 to 8.0 earthquake on this segment would also cause widespread damage to San Bernardino, Imperial, Riverside, Orange, and Los Angeles counties, which together have over 12 million inhabitants. For these reasons, the Southern San Andreas Fault Working Group was formed in 1989 to recommend how the scientific community might best respond to anomalous geophysical activity along the fault, increase our understanding of regional seismotectonics, and offer timely scientific advice to state and local governments.

Item Type:Report or Paper (Report)
Related URLs:
URLURL TypeDescription
Jones, Lucile M.0000-0002-2690-3051
Sieh, Kerry0000-0002-7311-2447
Hager, Bradford0000-0002-5643-1374
Hauksson, Egill0000-0002-6834-5051
Hudnut, Kenneth0000-0002-3168-4797
Additional Information:© 1991 USGS.
Group:Seismological Laboratory
Series Name:U.S. Geological Survey open-file report
Issue or Number:91-32
Record Number:CaltechAUTHORS:20141029-154001569
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Usage Policy:No commercial reproduction, distribution, display or performance rights in this work are provided.
ID Code:51034
Deposited By: Tony Diaz
Deposited On:29 Oct 2014 22:51
Last Modified:09 Mar 2020 13:18

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