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Asteroid 1950 DA's Encounter with Earth in 2880: Physical Limits of Collision Probability Prediction

Giorgini, J. D. and Ostro, S. J. and Benner, L. A. M. and Chodas, P. W. and Chesley, S. R. and Hudson, R. S. and Nolan, M. C. and Klemola, A. R. and Standish, E. M. and Jurgens, R. F. and Rose, R. and Chamberlin, A. B. and Yeomans, D. K. and Margot, J.- L. (2002) Asteroid 1950 DA's Encounter with Earth in 2880: Physical Limits of Collision Probability Prediction. Science, 296 (5565). pp. 132-136. ISSN 0036-8075. doi:10.1126/science.1068191.

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Integration of the orbit of asteroid (29075) 1950 DA, which is based on radar and optical measurements spanning 51 years, reveals a 20-minute interval in March 2880 when there could be a nonnegligible probability of the 1-kilometer object colliding with Earth. Trajectory knowledge remains accurate until then because of extensive astrometric data, an inclined orbit geometry that reduces in-plane perturbations, and an orbit uncertainty space modulated by gravitational resonance. The approach distance uncertainty in 2880 is determined primarily by uncertainty in the accelerations arising from thermal re-radiation of solar energy absorbed by the asteroid. Those accelerations depend on the spin axis, composition, and surface properties of the asteroid, so that refining the collision probability may require direct inspection by a spacecraft.

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URLURL TypeDescription DOIArticle ItemSupplementary Material
Chesley, S. R.0000-0003-3240-6497
Nolan, M. C.0000-0001-8316-0680
Additional Information:© 2002 American Association for the Advancement of Science. 19 November 2001; accepted 27 February 2002. We are grateful to V. Negrόn, A. Hine, and the staff of the Arecibo Observatory, as well as F. Krogh for his valuable insights and suggestions regarding numerical integration. Part of this research was conducted at JPL, California Institute of Technology (Caltech), under contract NASA. The Arecibo Observatory is part of the National Astronomy and Ionosphere Center, which is operated by Cornell University under a cooperative agreement with NSF and with support from NASA. Astrometric plate reduction work was supported by an NSF grant. Some of our Arecibo observations were obtained with the Caltech Baseband Recorder, whose development and fabrication were funded by NSF.
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Issue or Number:5565
Record Number:CaltechAUTHORS:20141119-070902383
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Official Citation:Asteroid 1950 DA's Encounter with Earth in 2880: Physical Limits of Collision Probability Prediction J. D. Giorgini, S. J. Ostro, L. A. M. Benner, P. W. Chodas, S. R. Chesley, R. S. Hudson, M. C. Nolan, A. R. Klemola, E. M. Standish, R. F. Jurgens, R. Rose, A. B. Chamberlin, D. K. Yeomans, and J.-L. Margot Science 5 April 2002: 296 (5565), 132-136. [DOI:10.1126/science.1068191]
Usage Policy:No commercial reproduction, distribution, display or performance rights in this work are provided.
ID Code:51930
Deposited By: Ruth Sustaita
Deposited On:19 Nov 2014 17:21
Last Modified:10 Nov 2021 19:17

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