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Earthquake prediction: The interaction of public policy and science

Jones, Lucile M. (1996) Earthquake prediction: The interaction of public policy and science. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 93 (9). pp. 3721-3725. ISSN 0027-8424. PMCID PMC39428. doi:10.1073/pnas.93.9.3721.

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Earthquake prediction research has searched for both informational phenomena, those that provide information about earthquake hazards useful to the public, and causal phenomena, causally related to the physical processes governing failure on a fault, to improve our understanding of those processes. Neither informational nor causal phenomena are a subset of the other. I propose a classification of potential earthquake predictors of informational, causal, and predictive phenomena, where predictors are causal phenomena that provide more accurate assessments of the earthquake hazard than can be gotten from assuming a random distribution. Achieving higher, more accurate probabilities than a random distribution requires much more information about the precursor than just that it is causally related to the earthquake.

Item Type:Article
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URLURL TypeDescription CentralArticle
Jones, Lucile M.0000-0002-2690-3051
Additional Information:© 1996 National Academy of Sciences. This paper was presented at a colloquium entitled "Earthquake Prediction: The Scientific Challenge," organized by Leon Knopoff (Chair), Keiiti Aki, Clarence R. Allen, James R. Rice, and Lynn R. Sykes, held February 10 and 11, 1995, at the National Academy of Sciences in Irvine, CA.
Issue or Number:9
PubMed Central ID:PMC39428
Record Number:CaltechAUTHORS:20141203-134205721
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Official Citation:Jones, L. M. (1996). Earthquake prediction: the interaction of public policy and science. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 93(9), 3721-3725.
Usage Policy:No commercial reproduction, distribution, display or performance rights in this work are provided.
ID Code:52340
Deposited On:04 Dec 2014 21:02
Last Modified:10 Nov 2021 19:24

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