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Prospects for Larger or More Frequent Earthquakes in the Los Angeles Metropolitan Region

Dolan, James F. and Sieh, Kerry and Rockwell, Thomas K. and Yeats, Robert S. and Shaw, John and Suppe, John and Huftile, Gary J. and Gath, Eldon M. (1995) Prospects for Larger or More Frequent Earthquakes in the Los Angeles Metropolitan Region. Science, 261 (5195). pp. 199-205. ISSN 0036-8075. doi:10.1126/science.267.5195.199.

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Far too few moderate earthquakes have occurred within the Los Angeles, California, metropolitan region during the 200-year-long historic period to account for observed strain accumulation, indicating that the historic era represents either a lull between clusters of moderate earthquakes or part of a centuries-long interseismic period between much larger (moment magnitude, M_w, 7.2 to 7.6) events. Geologic slip rates and relations between moment magnitude, average coseismic slip, and rupture area show that either of these hypotheses is possible, but that the latter is the more plausible of the two. The average time between M_w 7.2 to 7.6 earthquakes from a combination of six fault systems within the metropolitan area was estimated to be about 140 years.

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Sieh, Kerry0000-0002-7311-2447
Additional Information:© 1995 American Association for the Advancement of Science. We thank D. Agnew, A. Donnellan, T. Heaton, S. Hough, R. Stein, D. Wald, and T. Wallace for helpful discussions. We also thank S. Hough, D. Jackson, and S. Wesnousky for thoughtful reviews. This research was supported by grants from the California Department of Transportation, the City of Los Angeles, the County of Los Angeles, NSF Cooperative Agreement ERA-89-20136, and USGS Cooperative Agreement 14-08-0001-89-A0899, all administered by the SCEC. SCEC contribution #119.
Funding AgencyGrant Number
California Department of TransportationUNSPECIFIED
City of Los AngelesUNSPECIFIED
County of Los AngelesUNSPECIFIED
Southern California Earthquake Center (SCEC)UNSPECIFIED
Issue or Number:5195
Record Number:CaltechAUTHORS:20150121-124214666
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Official Citation:Dolan, J. F., Sieh, K., Rockwell, T. K., Yeats, R. S., Shaw, J., Suppe, J., . . . Gath, E. M. (1995). Prospects for Larger or More Frequent Earthquakes in the Los Angeles Metropolitan Region. Science, 267(5195), 199-205. doi: 10.1126/science.267.5195.199
Usage Policy:No commercial reproduction, distribution, display or performance rights in this work are provided.
ID Code:53949
Deposited On:21 Jan 2015 22:38
Last Modified:10 Nov 2021 20:25

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