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Uncertainty and Leontief Systems: An Application to the Selection of Space Station System Designs

Quirk, James and Olson, Mark and Habib-Agahi, Hamid and Fox, George (1989) Uncertainty and Leontief Systems: An Application to the Selection of Space Station System Designs. Management Science, 35 (5). pp. 585-596. ISSN 0025-1909 . http://resolver.caltech.edu/CaltechAUTHORS:20150128-095334674

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Abstract

This paper deals with the problem of designing a critical component of a highly interactive technologically advanced system, one in which there is uncertainty as to technological and cost parameters. The particular example discussed in the paper is the choice of an energy module for Space Station, where two alternatives, PV and SD, were under consideration. If the uncertainty associated with technological and cost parameters were ignored, and a choice made solely on the basis of “best guesses” of NASA engineers as to parameter values, then SD, which has been implemented only in small scale laboratory applications, would be a clearcut “design to cost” winner. The situation is different when the “best guess” estimates are replaced by subjective probability distributions over technological and cost parameters. The paper outlines a “safety first” decision making model which suggests that the more reliable PV, which has been used on all previous space missions, becomes the preferred choice for highly risk averse decision makers.


Item Type:Article
Related URLs:
URLURL TypeDescription
http://dx.doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.35.5.585DOIArticle
http://pubsonline.informs.org/doi/abs/10.1287/mnsc.35.5.585PublisherArticle
http://www.jstor.org/stable/2632106JSTORArticle
Additional Information:© 1989 The Institute of Management Science. Accepted by Arnold Barnett; received July 7, 1987. This paper has been with the authors 1 month for 1 revision. This research was sponsored in part by the Jet Propulsion Laboratory but sole responsibility for the results supported here rests with the authors. We would like to thank Dave Porter for his helpful review and referees for constructive comments.
Subject Keywords:space station; safety first; probabilistic cost; Leontief system
Record Number:CaltechAUTHORS:20150128-095334674
Persistent URL:http://resolver.caltech.edu/CaltechAUTHORS:20150128-095334674
Official Citation:Quirk, J., Olson, M., Habib-Agahi, H., & Fox, G. (1989). Uncertainty and Leontief Systems: An Application to the Selection of Space Station System Designs. Management Science, 35(5), 585-596. doi: doi:10.1287/mnsc.35.5.585
Usage Policy:No commercial reproduction, distribution, display or performance rights in this work are provided.
ID Code:54173
Collection:CaltechAUTHORS
Deposited By: Jason Perez
Deposited On:28 Jan 2015 20:13
Last Modified:28 Jan 2015 20:13

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