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The remote impacts of climate feedbacks on regional climate predictability

Roe, Gerard H. and Feldl, Nicole and Armour, Kyle C. and Hwang, Yen-Ting and Frierson, Dargan M. W. (2015) The remote impacts of climate feedbacks on regional climate predictability. Nature Geoscience, 8 (2). pp. 135-139. ISSN 1752-0894.

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Uncertainty in the spatial pattern of climate change is dominated by divergent predictions among climate models. Model differences are closely linked to their representation of climate feedbacks, that is, the additional radiative fluxes that are caused by changes in clouds, water vapour, surface albedo, and other factors, in response to an external climate forcing. Progress in constraining this uncertainty is therefore predicated on understanding how patterns of individual climate feedbacks aggregate into a regional and global climate response. Here we present a simple, moist energy balance model that combines regional feedbacks and the diffusion of both latent and sensible heat. Our model emulates the relationship between regional feedbacks and temperature response in more comprehensive climate models; the model can therefore be used to understand how uncertainty in feedback patterns drives uncertainty in the patterns of temperature response. We find that whereas uncertainty in tropical feedbacks induces a global response, the impact of uncertainty in polar feedbacks remains predominantly regionally confined.

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Roe, Gerard H.0000-0001-5906-4779
Additional Information:© 2015 Macmillan Publishers Limited. Received 08 August 2014; Accepted 16 December 2014; Published online 26 January 2015. The authors are grateful for enlightening feedback from M. Baker, A. Donohoe and P. Molnar. Author contributions: G.H.R. performed the MEBM analyses and N.F. performed the AM2 integrations. All authors contributed to the interpretation of the results and to writing the manuscript.
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Record Number:CaltechAUTHORS:20150309-105732421
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Usage Policy:No commercial reproduction, distribution, display or performance rights in this work are provided.
ID Code:55636
Deposited By: Tony Diaz
Deposited On:10 Mar 2015 19:24
Last Modified:09 Mar 2020 13:19

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