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Implications for prediction and hazard assessment from the 2004 Parkfield earthquake

Bakun, W. H. and Aagaard, B. and Dost, B. and Ellsworth, W. L. and Hardebeck, J. L. and Harris, R. A. and Ji, C. and Johnston, M. J. S. and Langbein, J. and Lienkaemper, J. J. and Michael, A. J. and Murray, J. R. and Nadeau, R. M. and Reasenberg, P. A. and Reichle, M. S. and Reoloffs, E. A. and Shakal, A. and Simpson, R. W. and Waldhauser, F. (2005) Implications for prediction and hazard assessment from the 2004 Parkfield earthquake. Nature, 437 (7061). pp. 969-974. ISSN 0028-0836. doi:10.1038/nature04067.

[img] PDF (Supplementary Figure S1 Estimates of MW and epicenter location for historical Parkfield earthquakes from MMI assignments relative to the rupture of the 2004 event (thick purple line)) - Supplemental Material
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[img] PDF (Supplementary Figure S2 Three possible sequences of earthquakes at Parkfield are tested for non-randomness with the Kolmogorov-Smirnov goodness-of-fit test) - Supplemental Material
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[img] PDF (Supplementary Figure S3 Peak horizontal acceleration from the CISN ShakeMap26 as a function of distance from the fault rupture) - Supplemental Material
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[img] PDF (Supplementary Figure S4 Spatial distribution of Parkfield aftershocks and background seismicity) - Supplemental Material
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[img] MS Word (Supplementary Discussion, Supplementary Figure Legends and Supplementary Tables S1 and S2) - Supplemental Material
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Obtaining high-quality measurements close to a large earthquake is not easy: one has to be in the right place at the right time with the right instruments. Such a convergence happened, for the first time, when the 28 September 2004 Parkfield, California, earthquake occurred on the San Andreas fault in the middle of a dense network of instruments designed to record it. The resulting data reveal aspects of the earthquake process never before seen. Here we show what these data, when combined with data from earlier Parkfield earthquakes, tell us about earthquake physics and earthquake prediction. The 2004 Parkfield earthquake, with its lack of obvious precursors, demonstrates that reliable short-term earthquake prediction still is not achievable. To reduce the societal impact of earthquakes now, we should focus on developing the next generation of models that can provide better predictions of the strength and location of damaging ground shaking.

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Ji, C.0000-0002-0350-5704
Additional Information:© 2005 Nature Publishing Group. Received 28 January 2005; Accepted 10 July 2005. The Parkfield experiment has served as a model for the collaboration of federal and state agencies with researchers in academia and industry, and many, far too numerous to list here, have contributed to its successes. In particular, J. Davis, J. Filson, A. Lindh and T. McEvilly made the experiment happen. We thank T. Hanks, S. Hough, D. Jackson, Y. Kagan, A. Lindh, M. Rymer, W. Thatcher, D. Wald and M. L. Zoback for their comments and suggestions and L. Blair, J. Boatwright, M. Huang, and D. Wald for technical assistance.
Issue or Number:7061
Record Number:CaltechAUTHORS:20150403-080028282
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Official Citation:Implications for prediction and hazard assessment from the 2004 Parkfield earthquake p969 W. H. Bakun, B. Aagaard, B. Dost, W. L. Ellsworth, J. L. Hardebeck, R. A. Harris, C. Ji, M. J. S. Johnston, J. Langbein, J. J. Lienkaemper, A. J. Michael, J. R. Murray, R. M. Nadeau, P. A. Reasenberg, M. S. Reichle, E. A. Roeloffs, A. Shakal, R. W. Simpson and F. Waldhauser doi: 10.1038/nature04067
Usage Policy:No commercial reproduction, distribution, display or performance rights in this work are provided.
ID Code:56326
Deposited By: Ruth Sustaita
Deposited On:03 Apr 2015 19:23
Last Modified:10 Nov 2021 20:58

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