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High interseismic coupling in the Eastern Makran (Pakistan) subduction zone

Lin, Y. N. and Jolivet, R. and Simons, M. and Agram, P. S. and Martens, H. R. and Li, Z. and Lodi, S. H. (2015) High interseismic coupling in the Eastern Makran (Pakistan) subduction zone. Earth and Planetary Science Letters, 420 . pp. 116-126. ISSN 0012-821X. https://resolver.caltech.edu/CaltechAUTHORS:20150409-073405847

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Abstract

Estimating the extent of interseismic coupling along subduction zone megathrusts is essential for quantitative assessments of seismic and tsunami hazards. Up to now, quantifying the seismogenic potential of the eastern Makran subduction zone at the northern edge of the Indian ocean has remained elusive due to a paucity of geodetic observations. Furthermore, non-tectonic processes obscure the signature of accumulating elastic strain. Historical earthquakes of magnitudes greater than 7 have been reported. In particular, the 1945 Mw 8.1 earthquake resulted in a significant tsunami that swept the shores of the Arabian Sea and the Indian Ocean. A quantitative estimate of elastic strain accumulation along the subduction plate boundary in eastern Makran is needed to confront previous indirect and contradictory conclusions about the seismic potential in the region. Here, we infer the distribution of interseismic coupling on the eastern Makran megathrust from time series of satellite Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) images acquired between 2003 and 2010, applying a consistent series of corrections to extract the low amplitude, long wavelength deformation signal associated with elastic strain on the megathrust. We find high interseismic coupling (i.e. the megathrust does not slip and elastic strain accumulates) in the central section of eastern Makran, where the 1945 earthquake occurred, while lower coupling coincides spatially with the subduction of the Sonne Fault Zone. The inferred accumulation of elastic strain since the 1945 earthquake is consistent with the future occurrence of magnitude 7+ earthquakes and we cannot exclude the possibility of a multi-segment rupture (Mw 8+). However, the likelihood for such scenarios might be modulated by partitioning of plate convergence between slip on the megathrust and internal deformation of the overlying, actively deforming, accretionary wedge.


Item Type:Article
Related URLs:
URLURL TypeDescription
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.epsl.2015.03.037DOIArticle
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0012821X15001867PublisherArticle
ORCID:
AuthorORCID
Simons, M.0000-0003-1412-6395
Additional Information:© 2015 Elsevier B.V. Received 19 September 2014; Received in revised form 17 March 2015; Accepted 18 March 2015.
Subject Keywords:Makran subduction zone; interseismic coupling; InSAR
Record Number:CaltechAUTHORS:20150409-073405847
Persistent URL:https://resolver.caltech.edu/CaltechAUTHORS:20150409-073405847
Official Citation:Y.N. Lin, R. Jolivet, M. Simons, P.S. Agram, H.R. Martens, Z. Li, S.H. Lodi, High interseismic coupling in the Eastern Makran (Pakistan) subduction zone, Earth and Planetary Science Letters, Volume 420, 15 June 2015, Pages 116-126, ISSN 0012-821X, http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.epsl.2015.03.037. (http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0012821X15001867)
Usage Policy:No commercial reproduction, distribution, display or performance rights in this work are provided.
ID Code:56503
Collection:CaltechAUTHORS
Deposited By: Tony Diaz
Deposited On:09 Apr 2015 19:12
Last Modified:03 Oct 2019 08:14

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