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Twenty-five Years after Kramer: An Assessment of Economic Retrospective Voting based upon Improved Estimates of Income and Unemployment

Kiewiet, D. Roderick and Udell, Michael (1998) Twenty-five Years after Kramer: An Assessment of Economic Retrospective Voting based upon Improved Estimates of Income and Unemployment. Economics and Politics, 10 (3). pp. 219-248. ISSN 0954-1985. https://resolver.caltech.edu/CaltechAUTHORS:20160218-151326256

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Abstract

Several studies in economics have derived estimates of economic activity in the years prior to World War II that differ significantly from official statistics. In this paper we examine the possibility that the impact of economic retrospective voting upon congressional election outcomes has been at least partially obscured by shortcomings in the official data series. To that end we re-estimate various specifications of the basic Kramer model with these revised measures of income and unemployment. Although the effect of changes in real per capita income does not depend much upon which particular income series we used, the observed impact of unemploy- ment doubles in size when the new estimates of historical unemployment rates made by Romer (1986b) and by Darby (1976) are used. Although the evidence is less than definitive, the results of our analyses also lend credence to the proposition that economic conditions have a greater impact upon congressional voting in on-year elections than in off years, and that the incumbent party is bound to suffer a midterm penalty.


Item Type:Article
Related URLs:
URLURL TypeDescription
http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/1468-0343.00045DOIArticle
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/1468-0343.00045/abstractPublisherArticle
ORCID:
AuthorORCID
Udell, Michael0000-0002-3985-915X
Additional Information:© 1998 Blackwell Publishers Ltd. We would like to thank Chris Achen, Michael Alvarez, Lance Davis, Jeff Dubin, David Grether, Bob Erikson, Jonathan Katz, Bill Keech, Morgan Kousser, Howard Rosenthal, Sam Kernell, Ken Sokoloff, Charles Stewart, and the late George Stigler for their assistance. The opinions expressed in this paper do not necessarily reflect those of the Joint Committee on Taxation.
Issue or Number:3
Record Number:CaltechAUTHORS:20160218-151326256
Persistent URL:https://resolver.caltech.edu/CaltechAUTHORS:20160218-151326256
Official Citation:Kiewiet, D. R. and Udell, M. (1998), Twenty-five Years after Kramer: An Assessment of Economic Retrospective Voting based upon Improved Estimates of Income and Unemployment. Economics & Politics, 10: 219–248. doi: 10.1111/1468-0343.00045
Usage Policy:No commercial reproduction, distribution, display or performance rights in this work are provided.
ID Code:64592
Collection:CaltechAUTHORS
Deposited By: Susan Vite
Deposited On:23 Feb 2016 00:14
Last Modified:09 Mar 2020 13:19

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