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Two Information Aggregation Mechanisms for Predicting the Opening Weekend Box Office Revenues of Films: Boxoffice Prophecy and Guess of Guesses

Court, David and Gillen, Benjamin J. and McKenzie, Jordi and Plott, Charles R. (2015) Two Information Aggregation Mechanisms for Predicting the Opening Weekend Box Office Revenues of Films: Boxoffice Prophecy and Guess of Guesses. Social Science Working Paper, 1412. California Institute of Technology , Pasadena, CA. http://resolver.caltech.edu/CaltechAUTHORS:20160222-140722119

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Abstract

Successful field tests were conducted on two new Information Aggregation Mechanisms (IAMs). The mechanisms collected information held as intuitions about opening weekend box office revenues for movies in Australia. Participants were film school students. One mechanism is similar to parimutuel betting that produces a probability distribution over box office amounts. Except for “art house films”, the predicted distribution is indistinguishable from the actual revenues. The second mechanism is based on guesses of the guesses of others and applied when incentives for accuracy could not be used. It tested well against data and contains information not encompassed by the first mechanism.


Item Type:Report or Paper (Working Paper)
Related URLs:
URLURL TypeDescription
http://resolver.caltech.edu/CaltechAUTHORS:20171102-152244151Related ItemLater version published in Economic Theory
Additional Information:We thank the Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation; the Lee Center; Australian Research Council (Linkage Grant LP110200336); University of Sydney; Australian Film, Television and Radio School (AFTRS); and the Caltech Laboratory for Experimental Economics and Political Science. The computer and software development skills of Hsing Yang Lee and Travis Maron are acknowledged. Their skills and dedication made the research possible. The comments of Matt Shum were very helpful.
Group:Social Science Working Papers
Funders:
Funding AgencyGrant Number
Gordon and Betty Moore FoundationUNSPECIFIED
Lee Center for Advanced Networking, CaltechUNSPECIFIED
Australian Research Council Linkage GrantLP110200336
University of SydneyUNSPECIFIED
Australian Film, Television and Radio School (AFTRS)UNSPECIFIED
Caltech Laboratory for Experimental Economics and Political ScienceUNSPECIFIED
Record Number:CaltechAUTHORS:20160222-140722119
Persistent URL:http://resolver.caltech.edu/CaltechAUTHORS:20160222-140722119
Official Citation:David Court, Benjamin Gillen, Jordi McKenzie, Charles R. Plott. Two Information Aggregation Mechanisms for Predicting the Opening Weekend Box Office Revenues of Films: Boxoffice Prophecy and Guess of Guesses. Pasadena, CA: California Institute of Technology, 2015. Social Science Working Paper, 1412.
Usage Policy:No commercial reproduction, distribution, display or performance rights in this work are provided.
ID Code:64644
Collection:CaltechAUTHORS
Deposited By: Susan Vite
Deposited On:02 Mar 2016 22:14
Last Modified:03 Nov 2017 17:40

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