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The Process of Choice in Guessing Games

Agranov, Marina and Caplin, Andrew and Tergiman, Chloe (2010) The Process of Choice in Guessing Games. Social Science Working Paper, 1334R. California Institute of Technology , Pasadena, CA. (Unpublished)

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This paper employs a new experimental design to provide insight into strategic choice in one shot games. We incentivize and observe provisional choices in the 2/3 guessing game in the period after the structure of the game has been communicated. Early selections in this "strategic choice process" data provide insight into naive (L0) play, and support the standard assumption that such choices average 50. While average strategic sophistication rises over time, we identify significant individual differences in this respect. These differences appear to be broad-based: those whose strategic sophistication grows most in our experiment also perform best at separate learning tasks.

Item Type:Report or Paper (Working Paper)
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Additional Information:October 2010. Revised December 2010. We thank Jim Andreoni, Colin Camerer, Vince Crawford, Mark Dean, John Duffy, Martin Dufwenberg, Guillaume Frechette, Sen Geng, P.J. Healy, Daniel Martin, Rosemarie Nagel, Andy Schotter, Roberto Weber, the seminar participants at the Experimental Economics seminar at NYU, at the UCLA Theory Workshop, and at the Sauder School of Business at UBC for their input and guidance. Later published as "Naive Play and the Process of Choice in Guessing Games" in the Journal of the Economic Science Association, December 2015, Volume 1, Issue 2, pp 146-157, First online: 19 May 2015. doi:10.1007/s40881-015-0003-5.
Group:Social Science Working Papers
Series Name:Social Science Working Paper
Issue or Number:1334R
Record Number:CaltechAUTHORS:20160229-095936436
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Official Citation:Marina Agranov, Andrew Caplin, and Chloe Tergiman. The Process of Choice in Guessing Games. Pasadena, CA: California Institute of Technology, 2010. Social Science Working Paper, 1334R.
Usage Policy:No commercial reproduction, distribution, display or performance rights in this work are provided.
ID Code:64842
Deposited By: Susan Vite
Deposited On:02 Mar 2016 23:55
Last Modified:03 Oct 2019 09:41

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