A Caltech Library Service

Near-trench slip potential of megaquakes evaluated from fault properties and conditions

Hirono, Tetsuro and Tsuda, Kenichi and Tanikawa, Wataru and Ampuero, Jean-Paul and Shibazaki, Bunichiro and Kinoshita, Masataka and Mori, James J. (2016) Near-trench slip potential of megaquakes evaluated from fault properties and conditions. Scientific Reports, 6 . Art. No. 28184. ISSN 2045-2322. PMCID PMC4913312. doi:10.1038/srep28184.

[img] PDF - Published Version
Creative Commons Attribution.

[img] PDF - Supplemental Material
Creative Commons Attribution.


Use this Persistent URL to link to this item:


Near-trench slip during large megathrust earthquakes (megaquakes) is an important factor in the generation of destructive tsunamis. We proposed a new approach to assessing the near-trench slip potential quantitatively by integrating laboratory-derived properties of fault materials and simulations of fault weakening and rupture propagation. Although the permeability of the sandy Nankai Trough materials are higher than that of the clayey materials from the Japan Trench, dynamic weakening by thermally pressurized fluid is greater at the Nankai Trough owing to higher friction, although initially overpressured fluid at the Nankai Trough restrains the fault weakening. Dynamic rupture simulations reproduced the large slip near the trench observed in the 2011 Tohoku-oki earthquake and predicted the possibility of a large slip of over 30 m for the impending megaquake at the Nankai Trough. Our integrative approach is applicable globally to subduction zones as a novel tool for the prediction of extreme tsunami-producing near-trench slip.

Item Type:Article
Related URLs:
URLURL TypeDescription CentralArticle
Hirono, Tetsuro0000-0001-7574-4213
Tsuda, Kenichi0000-0002-9829-7273
Tanikawa, Wataru0000-0002-3083-0959
Ampuero, Jean-Paul0000-0002-4827-7987
Shibazaki, Bunichiro0000-0003-3757-0229
Kinoshita, Masataka0000-0003-1144-3651
Mori, James J.0000-0003-1927-4661
Additional Information:© 2016 Macmillan Publishers Limited. This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in the credit line; if the material is not included under the Creative Commons license, users will need to obtain permission from the license holder to reproduce the material. To view a copy of this license, visit Received: 11 February 2016; Accepted: 31 May 2016; Published: 20 June 2016. We thank S. Ogawa, T. Ishii and J. Miyakoshi for discussions on our dynamic rupture simulation. We are grateful to N. Kato and H. Masumoto for supporting our friction experiment. Fault samples were provided by IODP. We thank all operation staff and scientists on board the D/V Chikyu during the expeditions of NanTroSEIZE and JFAST. We also thank two anonymous reviewers for their constructive comments. This work was supported by a Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B) (KAKENHI No. 15H03737) from the Japan Society for the Promotion of Science and by Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research on Innovative Areas (Crustal Dynamics, KAKENHI No. 26109004) from the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology of Japan. Author Contributions: T.H. performed multiple analyses of the fault-rock materials. W.T. performed the hydraulic experiment and TP modelling. K.T., J.-P.A. and B.S. contributed to the dynamic simulation. M.K. and J.J.M. participated in discussions of the Tohoku-Oki and the Nankai earthquakes in relation to the results of IODP expeditions. All authors contributed in writing the paper. The authors declare no competing financial interests.
Group:Seismological Laboratory
Funding AgencyGrant Number
Japan Society for the Promotion of Science (JSPS)15H03737
Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology (MEXT)26109004
PubMed Central ID:PMC4913312
Record Number:CaltechAUTHORS:20160627-083225555
Persistent URL:
Usage Policy:No commercial reproduction, distribution, display or performance rights in this work are provided.
ID Code:68672
Deposited By: Tony Diaz
Deposited On:29 Jun 2016 17:34
Last Modified:26 Apr 2022 18:33

Repository Staff Only: item control page