Modeling the long-term frequency distribution of regional ozone concentrations

Abstract

Efficient methods are developed for modeling emissions – air quality relationships that govern ozone and NO_2 concentrations over very long periods of time. A baseline model evaluation study is conducted to assess the accuracy and speed with which the relationship between pollutant emissions and the frequency distribution of O_3 concentrations throughout the year can be computed along with annual average NO_2 values using a deterministic photochemical airshed model driven by automated objective analysis of measured meteorological parameters. Methods developed are illustrated by application to the air quality situation that exists in Southern California. Model performance statistics for O_3 are similar to the results obtained in previous short-term episodic model evaluation studies that were based on hand-crafted meteorological inputs that are supplemented by expensive field measurement campaigns. Model predictions at one of the highest NO_2 concentration sites in the US indicate that measured violation of the US annual average NO_2 air quality standard at that site occurs because other species such as HNO_3 and PAN are measured as if they were NO_2 by the chemiluminescent NO_x monitors in current use.